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2024-7-2

03中国、印度等新兴市场国家驱动全球石油需求向上 OPEC、EIA在5月分别预测2024年全球原油需求较2023年增加225、111万桶/日，增速分别为2.2%、1.1%。 OPEC/EIA预测2024年中国石油需求较2023年增加76/33万桶/日，变动比例分别为4.4%/2.1%。 OPEC预测印度石油需求较2023年增加24万桶/日，变动比例为4.3%。表：OPEC对2024、2025年全球石油需求预测（百万桶/日）表：EIA对2024、2025年全球石油需求预测（百万桶/日）美洲美国欧洲亚太OECD中国印度202324.9620.3613.457.2545.6516.365.34其他亚洲 9.28腊梅6.69中东8.63非洲4.46俄罗斯3.84其他欧亚 1.17其他欧洲 0.78非OECD56.56102.21全球202425.1720.5313.447.2345.8417.125.589.626.878.894.563.951.230.8058.62104.46202525.2520.5713.457.2445.9417.535.809.937.079.274.674.011.260.8160.36106.312024增幅 2025增幅0.9%0.9%0.3%0.2%0.6%4.4%4.3%3.6%2.8%3.0%2.2%2.6%4.1%2.1%3.5%2.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.2%2.4%4.1%3.2%2.9%4.3%2.5%1.4%2.6%1.4%3.0%1.8%资料来源：OPEC、EIA，浙商证券研究所OECD美国加拿大欧洲日本其他OECD非OECD13.4513.3613.463.296.103.226.13.176.0956.1557.3058.71欧陆欧洲中国4.930.7616.06其他亚洲14.29其他非OECD 20.124.960.7716.3914.7920.395.020.7816.7515.3220.85全球101.80 102.91 104.6820252024增幅 2025增幅202345.6520.252.45202445.6120.362.4545.9620.652.48-0.1%0.5%0.0%-0.7%-2.1%0.0%2.0%0.6%1.3%2.1%3.5%1.3%1.1%0.8%1.4%1.2%0.7%-1.6%-0.2%2.5%1.2%1.3%2.2%3.6%2.3%1.7%23

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