> 数据图表咨询大家2.2 从领先指标M1看,25年4月以后M1同比突破名义GDP,对应债券震荡调整2025-3-52.2 从领先指标M1看,25年4月以后M1同比突破名义GDP,对应债券震荡调整M1同比在二三季度将突破名义GDP增速,通常十年国债利率先下后上M1同比名义GDP同比(21年用两年复合)M1预测10Y国债到期收益率(右轴)10Y最大调整120BP10Y最大调整76BP10Y最大调整26BP25%20%15%10%5%0%11//14//17//410241024102/101/3102/101/410211//14//17//510251025102/101/510211//14//17//610261026102/101/610211//14//17//710271027102/101/710211//14//17//810281028102/101/810211//14//17//910291029102/101/910211//14//17//020202020202/101/020211//14//17//120212021202/101/120211//14//17//220222022202/101/220211//14//17//320232023202/101/320211//14//17//420242024202/101/420211//14//17//52025202520211//14//17//310231023102-5%-10%/101/52025%5%4%4%3%3%2%2%1%1%0%资料来源:wind,25年预测值按照18-23年季节性,平安证券研究所17平安证券综合其他