> 数据图表各位网友请教一下4.22025-5-54.2成人&职教&招聘业绩前瞻业绩前瞻：1）公考：H2进入无限学新形态阵地战，华图Q4应对相对及时，25年可能成为行业产能出清关键时间；2）企业培训：行动Q1收款下滑主要系高基数，行业顺周期弹性特征显著；3）职业教育：岗前培训类仍跟随就业周期，学历类在短-中期办学投入持续增加下利润率承压，中-长期能否企稳取决于能否实现差异化定位及真正实现“高质量”办学内核；4）招聘：改善持续筑底，确定性拐点仍待观察。表：成人&职教&招聘板块盈利预测与估值添加标题数据来源：wind，Bloomberg，浙商证券研究所（截至2025年5月14日）22单位：亿元 2025/5/152469.HK 粉笔*yoy0667.HK 中国东方教育*yoy0839.HK 中教控股*yoy市值5011865收入11.59-13.4%21.339,3%32.9516.0%24Q324H2经调净利润0.13-91.4%2.47135.2%8.791.9%24Q4202427.9-7.7%41.23.4%65.817.1%收入2025E28.72.7%44.27.5%73.712.1%收入2026E30.66.6%47.98.3%79.57.9%yoyyoyBZ.O605098.SH 行动教育189136592300492.SZ 华图山鼎*002607.SZ 中公教育*2.164.4%4.9626.2%6.970.7425.8%0.16扭亏-0.76yoyBOSS直聘*yoy2026E9.713.2%26.00.0%41.421.4%93.513%22.06%172.719%552.413%289.513%注：*表示一致预测，其中BOSS直聘、同道猎聘预测来自彭博一致预测，其他为Wind一致预测；未标*表示来自浙商模型预测。收入 归母净利润 收入 归母净利润1.730.3%6.53-30%6.254964%19.1219%6.1510%29.7523%113.1318%53.7413%2024A7.816.6%26.0-15.1%28.3245.0% 亏损 1048.2%73.618.2415%24%20.84.51-9%-28%117.932.7225%21%430.398.5312%3%223.163.9123%16%2025E8.69.5%26.00.2%34.120.8%82.612%20.80%144.823%489.414%257.315%0.585.7%0.52-67%0.084064%7.3918%0.4644%0.49-10%2.0752%1.385%7.3217%0.70扭亏0.7044%1.50-25%5.85432%6100.HK 同道猎聘*300662.SZ 科锐国际*600861.SH 北京人力*600662.SH 外服控股*yoyyoyyoyyoy市值431659117116净利润2024E2.722.4%1.82027E31.910.0%52.710.0%84.56.2%20243.6-18.6%5.286.6%19.73.3%2025E3.3-9.7%6.319.8%21.17.2%归母净利润2025E2027E3.011.011.9%13.4%26.01.80.0% 扭亏 0.0%44.53.27.4% 扭亏 500.8%31.8104.912.3%17%1.923.89%8.5%2.8205.219%36%10.4621.031%12%6.8321.511%-37%27.327%1.761%2.1-91%7.9419%10.9-77%0.52026E3.713.7%7.519.0%23.08.9%2026E3.411.7%1.80.0%4.128.9%36.615%2.010%3.421%10.40%7.49%202413.7PE2025E15.22026E13.42027E12.622.418.715.713.23.33.12.82.62024E16.1PE2025E14.42026E12.92027E11.5102.7102.7102.7102.7257.221.79.628.814.810.742.818.68.821.211.317.033.216.28.017.511.315.726.114.15.814.510.215.32027E4.06.5%8.919.3%25.08.8%2027E3.812.4%1.80.0%5.227.1%41.914.5%2.838.4%4.120%11.511%7.63%浙商证券公共服务
