> 数据图表想问下各位网友2.22025-7-22.2见底信号1：业绩预期见底，预计当前至中秋国庆或触及业绩预期低点复盘来看，12-15年的业绩底部为14年二季度和三季度，股价的底部在14年1月，但由于14年大盘表现出色，白酒申万指数/沪深300的股价底部出现在15年6月，体现为14年开始白酒板块出现绝对收益，15年6月后白酒板块出现相对收益。当前来看，受“禁酒令”影响，预计白酒板块25Q2和25Q3基本面均承压，但目前市场对25Q2、25Q3以及25年的业绩预期尚存分歧，我们预计伴随中报披露、中秋国庆打款备货情况反馈清晰后，对今年全年悲观业绩预期或更为充分，若报表端对基本面的悲观情况同步释放，则当前至中秋国庆旺季或触及本轮调整期的业绩预期低点。表：主要酒企2013-2017年单季度收入/净利润增速情况一览图：白酒/沪深300股价在15年6月见底白酒（申万）沪深300白酒/沪深300（右轴）16,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000035302520151050图：白酒PE/沪深300在14年1月见底白酒（申万）PE(TTM)沪深300PE(TTM)白酒PE/沪深300PE（右轴）6.005.004.003.002.001.000.003.503.002.502.001.501.000.500.0014数据来源：WIND，浙商证券研究所13Q2-62.6-55.0-10.38.5-4.0-18.4-7.827.76.632.90.4-20.7-37.2-23.813Q2-85.5-59.6-53.0-9.2-3.5-5.954.3-56.831.08.4110.0-68.2-33.3-139.413Q3-78.5-81.2-16.93.017.11.5-22.38.6-4.3-10.2-40.0-13.6-10.4-21.013Q3-105.3-213.6-41.311.6-26.7-6.51006.9-11.416.0-52.49.8-98.9-56.1-130.313Q4-100.816.231.3-35.937.730.8-39.89.428.9-28.1-8.6-36.3-10.0-47.013Q4-254.7-1164.2-73.040.8-62.0-48.6154.5-26.88.5-59.3-50.2-204.6-368.8-96.314Q1-77.0-58.9-7.0-49.34.0-4.9-10.3-8.023.3-19.2-22.5-44.3-30.1-24.014Q1-83.9-175.0-30.93.0-15.1-56.974.7-6.8-5.7-27.821.4-86.2-54.5-86.014Q2-23.1-46.4-32.9-4.5-1.321.7-3.4-24.518.6-27.8-27.8-41.541.329.214Q2-323.7-281.2-125.6-3.4-8.1-30.957.14.3-61.3-36.1-36.6-54.2-92.4108.314Q375.8-10.341.3-60.8-5.38.80.37.9-3.4-24.4-1.4-6.6-42.816.715.414Q3-204.381.76.7-9.4-7.0-67.6162.4-0.57.5-4.0-46.340.0445.2-80.878.814Q42811.0-41.947.4-74.59.7-8.620.1-0.43.1-6.936.67.015.96.42.714Q462.4-39.766.314.54.0-150.299.0-4.5-31.8-1.229.8-116.5123.181.070.613Q1水井坊 -49.5酒鬼酒 -62.3老白干酒 31.7泸州老窖 -3.4贵州茅台 19.1古井贡酒 18.7洋河股份 6.1天佑德酒 31.0今世缘伊力特五粮液顺鑫农业 4.54.95.4山西汾酒 26.3金种子酒 12.0舍得酒业 -4.3金徽酒口子窖迎驾贡酒13Q1酒鬼酒 -91.5水井坊 -36.8老白干酒 11.3贵州茅台 21.0洋河股份 6.5泸州老窖 -11.6顺鑫农业 25.6古井贡酒 20.1天佑德酒 34.6今世缘五粮液伊力特18.97.4金种子酒 21.8山西汾酒 32.4舍得酒业 -48.5金徽酒口子窖迎驾贡酒15Q285.449.737.7-13.8单季度营业收入增速（%)15Q115Q368.7254.737.798.05.637.515.922.0-0.414.712.114.312.010.4-13.91.9-7.71.533.30.90.80.215.00.216.9-7.8-21.3-9.2-9.7-36.65.315.911.0-3.23.1-3.30.8-9.49.1-27.2-18.317.6-5.615Q2144.4105.7-198.2单季度归母净利润增速（%)15Q115Q3168.21071.1213.1156.339.626.82.118.013.111.35.39.612.06.25.617.14.5-48.61.5-0.212.33.4-15.39.320.33.3-16.0-22.5-32.0-37.1-45.6-20.711.7-26.9261.7-2.41.485.1-22.2-43.3122.936.447.825.9-3.4-0.915Q4172.442.5-6.4225.5-3.510.41.018.17.2-10.00.59.816.2-11.2-18.3-1.0-1.415Q4228.5106.530.1-12.472.3140.914.757.3-106.934.739.51550.5-57.4462.7-56.616Q113.93.710.516.016.910.69.3-5.67.812.46.331.02.5-8.635.423.820.33.216Q148.562.740.312.010.310.0-8.713.6-9.610.631.921.424.636.9178.632.854.523.616Q253.6-14.821.315.013.114.91.218.25.04.9-3.4-1.117.6-17.313.23.14.3-8.116Q2-48.8521.6-40.511.11.17.80.012.0-81.617.4-10.3-16.8-236.50.2363.1174.139.31.716Q331.212.31.222.314.812.29.4-0.111.240.64.413.517.8-30.269.24.95.92.016Q324.4181.347.13.610.930.7-60.326.0-12.46.9-7.0-3.5-119.97.51231.816.315.130.516Q461.832.0-4.128.428.622.05.221.1-3.714.85.74.8-4.6-14.66.5-2.65.315.016Q456.3340.756.54.39.3184.487.715.0579.3-1.27.0-13.7-49.3-0.9699.326.36.849.517Q132.88.62.720.333.217.910.9-11.720.75.88.715.148.3-27.10.03.916.34.417Q131.017.735.325.211.734.57.218.5-29.625.723.826.8-77.058.7235.523.020.812.917Q2129.752.512.618.433.024.617.71.811.72.7-7.723.330.2-20.328.012.519.91.617Q2336.574.4205.331.020.430.72.362.1-15.617.640.10.992.7108.695.427.948.2-45.317Q3108.926.41.632.5115.914.619.6-12.612.9-8.424.543.046.8-7.514.0-12.213.7-1.017Q325.7122.318.5138.418.234.271.264.2-90.29.564.11.486.4121.04.8-24.122.0-31.317Q451.148.13.0 老白干酒15.0 泸州老窖28.9 贵州茅台7.5 古井贡酒20.8 洋河股份-6.0 天佑德酒13.219.3 顺鑫农业25.119.917.6 山西汾酒15.6 金种子酒9.1 舍得酒业11.579.26.1 迎驾贡酒17Q438.621.768.7 老白干酒66.8 贵州茅台5.8 洋河股份22.8 泸州老窖0.2 顺鑫农业42.1 古井贡酒-1032.9 天佑德酒7.860.9113.1 伊力特-54.1 金种子酒-10.0 山西汾酒89.4 舍得酒业24.0199.2 口子窖14.1 迎驾贡酒浙商证券综合其他
