> 数据图表如何才能乘用车最新年度/季度预测数据2025-7-0乘用车最新年度/季度预测数据◼ 报废/更新政策落地，乘用车全年消费高景气可期◼ 根据国务院政策例行吹风会，报废补贴范围放宽，我们预测2025Q3/Q4乘用车上险量分别为600/740万辆，同比+3.4%/0.9%，预测2025全年实现2366万辆零售销量，同比+3.9%。（数据来源：交强险，东吴证券研究所142023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q3E2025Q4E2025E内需-交强险口径/万辆乘用车销量自主品牌销量新能源乘用车销量406YOY-13.7%195-6.6%市占率 48.1%YOY123YOY22.3%环比 -27.1%渗透率 30.4%51726.2%24939.1%48.1%17156.0%38.7%33.1%5492.9%27919.7%50.7%19935.7%16.1%36.2%外需-乘联会口径/万辆乘用车出口量77YOY88.3%新能源乘用车出口228993.1%2510037.0%26YOY102.7%215.0%51.2%批发-乘联会口径/万辆乘用车批发销量新能源批发销量YOY505-7.2%15026.7%渗透率 29.7%YOY渠道库存总体渠道库存新能源22.44.360227.4%20460.5%33.9%(4.1)7.86753.5%23626.3%35.0%26.411.962611.3%32820.4%52.3%23840.7%19.8%38.0%11547.9%3068.3%77319.9%29737.4%38.4%31.028.047517.0%25932.9%54.6%17541.5%-26.7%36.8%10637.5%2931.8%55710.3%19429.3%34.8%(23.4)(10.1)488-5.7%27912.3%57.3%23034.4%31.7%47.2%11731.5%2914.7%6152.2%26630.5%43.3%10.17.55805.7%35928.7%61.8%30051.0%30.5%51.8%12222.8%3015.2%662-1.9%32336.5%48.7%(40.3)(7.1)73417.1%46742.5%63.6%37155.9%23.7%50.6%4892.9%30617.9%62.5%23333.4%-37.3%47.7%55714.1%35627.4%63.9%29528.2%26.6%53.0%6003.4%42819.4%71.3%40534.9%37.3%67.5%1247.5%326.3%1125.8%4013515.2%591338.7%4236.1%103.1%41.9%87513.2%43245.7%49.4%17.028.262812.7%28446.3%45.2%27.410.669913.6%35934.8%51.4%7.25.37289.9%43635.1%59.9%(5.0)(11.0)7400.9%442-5.2%59.8%49733.8%22.7%67.2%14113.6%5055.3%8932.1%56530.8%63.3%12.018.023663.9%158516.2%67.0%143233.0%60.5%52311.4%18352.3%29448.7%165336.0%56.1%5538东吴证券综合其他
