铜：供需给予中长期价格支撑供需平衡：供需缺口支撑铜价中枢 供需平衡：近几年铜矿干扰率提升，在铜矿品位下滑导致铜产量增速难言乐观，在目前铜矿产量规划下，2025-2026年供需缺口分别为10/15万吨，我们认为随着铜供需缺口逐步扩大，有望支持中长期的铜价中枢。珍惜有限 创造无限图表13：铜供需平衡表（kt）Refined Balance: Global +Surplus/(-Deficit)Global Total Refined Cu ProductionGlobal Refined Consumption35000300002500020000150001000050000-5000Refined Balance: Global +Surplus/(-Deficit)Global Total Refined Cu ProductionGlobal Refined Consumption202417026,85126,6822025E-10127,38227,4832026E-14928,11828,2672027E-8028,82028,9012028E-19629,20929,4062029E-20929,79230,0012030E-11730,46130,577资料来源：S&P, 五矿证券研究所预测120.0%100.0%80.0%60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%11
