> 数据图表怎样理解032025-9-103预期差二：完成全年GDP增速目标，需投资、消费发力表：2010-2024年申万一级行业国庆节前后T+/-5/10/20交易日超额收益中位数及胜率（%）➢ 政策催化叠加日历效应，消费板块重点关注社会服务。➢ 政策催化：8月18日，国务院总理李强8月18日主 持召开国务院第 九次全体会议 ，提到“持续激发消费潜力，系统清理消费领域限制性措施，加快培育壮大服务消费、新型消费等新增长点。”社会服务属于服务消费范畴，有望受益。➢ 受益于中秋节和国庆节的日历效应，社会服务板块在国庆节前值得重点关注。国庆节前后消费及顺周期板块的表现领军市场，国庆节期间，家电、医药生物、银行及美容护理行业在节日前后均实现可观超额收益。值得注意的是，社会服务板块在国庆节前20个交易日取得超额收益的胜率为60%，在所有申万一级行业中并列排名第一；前20个交易日超额收益率中位数为3.4%，在所有申万一级行业中排名第一。国庆节前社会服务板块日历效应显著。资料来源：Wind，浙商证券研究所35行业代码行业名称（申万一级）（申万一级）801010.SI农林牧渔801030.SI基础化工801040.SI钢铁801050.SI有色金属801080.SI电子801110.SI家用电器801120.SI食品饮料801130.SI纺织服饰801140.SI轻工制造801150.SI医药生物801160.SI公用事业801170.SI交通运输801180.SI房地产801200.SI商贸零售801210.SI社会服务801230.SI综合801710.SI建筑材料801720.SI建筑装饰801730.SI电力设备801740.SI国防军工801750.SI计算机801760.SI801770.SI801780.SI传媒通信银行801790.SI非银金融801880.SI汽车801890.SI机械设备801950.SI煤炭801960.SI石油石化801970.SI环保801980.SI美容护理T-2033.3%46.7%33.3%20.0%26.7%60.0%53.3%33.3%46.7%60.0%40.0%53.3%53.3%60.0%60.0%46.7%33.3%20.0%60.0%53.3%40.0%40.0%53.3%60.0%46.7%66.7%46.7%60.0%60.0%26.7%40.0%超额收益的胜率超额收益率中位数T-1033.3%13.3%13.3%20.0%40.0%66.7%66.7%33.3%46.7%80.0%13.3%26.7%33.3%60.0%60.0%40.0%40.0%13.3%53.3%33.3%40.0%33.3%60.0%46.7%26.7%46.7%26.7%40.0%20.0%33.3%53.3%T-553.3%26.7%33.3%13.3%40.0%53.3%86.7%33.3%40.0%80.0%20.0%33.3%46.7%53.3%53.3%26.7%33.3%33.3%46.7%40.0%33.3%26.7%46.7%53.3%46.7%46.7%26.7%66.7%26.7%26.7%66.7%T+560.0%66.7%33.3%40.0%46.7%53.3%26.7%60.0%40.0%60.0%46.7%53.3%26.7%26.7%20.0%46.7%40.0%40.0%40.0%46.7%80.0%26.7%46.7%53.3%33.3%46.7%60.0%33.3%40.0%60.0%53.3%T+1046.7%40.0%40.0%33.3%40.0%60.0%40.0%40.0%33.3%33.3%33.3%46.7%20.0%26.7%20.0%40.0%33.3%46.7%46.7%26.7%40.0%13.3%33.3%66.7%66.7%40.0%46.7%33.3%46.7%53.3%53.3%T+2060.0%26.7%40.0%26.7%60.0%46.7%53.3%33.3%26.7%40.0%33.3%46.7%40.0%13.3%20.0%46.7%46.7%53.3%33.3%33.3%40.0%33.3%33.3%60.0%60.0%53.3%60.0%20.0%20.0%40.0%46.7%T-20-1.6-0.5-1.1-3.0-0.80.21.2-1.3-0.30.1-1.10.20.50.93.4-0.3-0.8-0.50.70.5-1.3-2.50.52.0-0.31.6-0.12.51.0-1.7-1.2T-10-1.2-1.0-1.6-1.9-0.20.93.4-2.0-0.11.0-1.3-1.1-1.60.70.6-1.0-0.2-1.10.1-1.7-0.7-1.30.40.0-0.7-0.1-0.8-0.4-1.1-1.71.2T-50.6-0.6-0.9-1.1-0.70.22.1-0.9-0.81.0-1.2-0.8-0.90.40.4-0.4-0.9-1.40.0-1.3-0.2-0.8-0.60.0-0.3-0.1-0.60.7-0.8-1.00.8T+50.60.6-0.5-0.2-0.30.4-1.90.3-0.60.50.00.0-1.3-0.8-1.6-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.6-0.10.8-0.9-0.10.8-0.5-0.30.5-1.1-0.60.90.0T+10-0.3-0.1-0.6-2.1-0.70.3-0.6-0.2-1.3-0.9-0.4-0.1-2.8-0.9-1.6-0.4-0.70.0-0.6-1.1-0.6-0.4-1.61.20.7-0.10.0-2.2-0.80.62.3T+200.5-1.2-0.8-2.40.40.00.6-0.8-1.4-1.2-1.6-0.5-1.2-1.4-3.0-0.3-1.00.0-0.5-0.9-1.7-0.4-2.10.31.20.70.3-4.1-1.7-1.5-0.2浙商证券综合其他
