> 数据图表你知道5.22025-10-35.2职教&招聘Q3业绩前瞻三季报前瞻：1）公考：粉笔通过AI刷题班有效吸引低付费人群，华图直通车班型叠加区域运营改革有望初见成效，25年可能成为行业产能出清关键时间；2）企业培训：行动Q3到课率及收款或回暖双位数增速，行业顺周期弹性特征显著，AI赋能百校计划推进中；3）职业教育：岗前培训类仍跟随就业周期，学历类在短-中期办学投入持续增加下利润率承压，中-长期能否企稳取决于能否实现差异化定位及真正实现“高质量”办学内核；4）招聘：同比可能回暖，但确定性拐点仍待观察。添加标题数据来源：wind，Bloomberg，浙商证券研究所（截至2025年10月13日）24表：职教板块盈利预测与估值单位：亿元 2025/10/132469.HK 粉笔*yoy0667.HK 中国东方教育*yoy0839.HK 中教控股*yoy605098.SH 行动教育yoy002607.SZ 中公教育*yoy300492.SZ 华图山鼎*yoy003032.SZ 传智教育*yoy市值5814078市值4517413625表：招聘人力板块盈利预测与估值单位：亿元 2025/10/13BZ.OBOSS直聘*yoy300662.SZ 科锐国际*yoy600861.SH 北京人力*yoy600662.SH 外服控股*yoy6100.HK 同道猎聘*yoy市值76454106121市值15收入14.67-10.0%21.8610.2%36.7311.8%25Q125H1经调净利润2.57-26.5%4.1649.6%10.48-4.0%25Q2收入11.55-0.4%23.299.2%35.898.9%25Q3E25H2E经调净利润0.33148.7%4.2471.7%7.77-11.6%25Q4E202427.9-7.7%41.23.4%65.817.1%2.135.80-24.7%-14.2%1.03-8.1%0.220.2817.8%0.40收入 归母净利润 收入 归母净利润 收入 归母净利润 收入 归母净利润 2024A7.81.3116.6%-7.2%26.05.75-15.1%28.31048.2%2.4-54.2%0.918.2786.5%18.9%-0.020.7242.1% 亏损 50.0% 亏损1.2167.4%-0.058.9710.7%0.912.7728.2%2.4641.8%0.8139.0%0.797.3%-51.7%-15.2%-34.2%收入2025E26.2-6.0%45.29.7%72.610.4%收入2025E8.711.3%26.00.2%33.920.0%2.40.0%25Q125Q225Q3E25Q4E收入7.7044.2%0.5842.1%5.91收入 归母净利润 收入 归母净利润 收入 归母净利润 收入 归母净利润 2024A73.619.2324%12.9%117.933.0321%25.1%430.3108.3712%2.7%223.162.7416%16.8%21.029.7%37.7230.0%118.544.8%59.7115.5%9.4630.8%0.6951.3%2.22-0.3%1.731.7%21.5112.5%20.6313.1%9.1624.0%8.1611.4%2.118.8%180.4%2025E82.412%145.924%472.110%256.515%25H1E25H2E收入9.89-2.5%经调净利润0.6518.5%收入10.39-2.5%经调净利润1.3718.5%收入202420.8-9%2025E20.3-3%2026E27.23.7%49.69.8%77.97.3%2026E9.610.5%26.00.0%40.218.4%2.40.0%2026E93.313%175.120%523.411%288.112%2026E21.35%经调净利润20243.62025E2027E2.928.96.2% -18.6% -20.0%8.455.160.0%11.2%18.382.0-7.4%5.2%归母净利润5.286.6%19.73.3%2026E3.519.3%10.828.9%18.72.4%2024A2.722.4%1.82025E2027E2.910.68.7%10.6%1.826.00.0% 扭亏 0.0%3.544.510.8% 扭亏 552.0%0.00.0% 亏损 扭亏-1.30.52.42026E3.210.6%1.80.0%4.323.7%0.02027E104.912.4%208.119%584.612%320.411%2027E22.14%2024A27.327%2.1-91%7.9419%10.9-77%归母净利润2025E34.526%2.939%11.039%7.1-35%经调净利润2026E39.013%3.521%10.3-6%7.78%20241.761%2025E2.019%2026E2.524%202416.1PE2025E20.12026E16.92027E14.926.716.712.911.54.04.34.23.92024E16.894.7257.0-18.72024E28.026.313.411.220249.0PE2025E15.594.739.4PE2025E22.218.99.617.1PE2025E7.62026E14.02027E12.594.731.994.726.22026E19.62027E17.215.610.315.812.99.314.92026E6.12027E4.62027E3.913.3%12.212.7%20.17.3%2027E3.612.1%1.80.0%5.221.6%0.02027E44.413.9%4.221%11.410%8.26%2027E3.332.4%注：*表示一致预测，其中港股预测来自彭博一致预测，A股预测来自Wind一致预测，其他盈利预测来自浙商模型。浙商证券公共服务
