一起讨论下电解铝供需平衡汇总评估：原本以供需缺口为主—

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一起讨论下电解铝供需平衡汇总评估：原本以供需缺口为主——关税事件动态评估？

2025-5-1

电解铝供需平衡汇总评估：原本以供需缺口为主——关税事件动态评估？原本预计2025年全球原铝供需约短缺-17或-58万吨，仍应定义为紧平衡格局，整体基本面基调还是偏健康，与2024年微观格局比较相似；目前最新调整为过剩！SMM，钢联，海外知名咨询商，国泰君安期货研究资料来源：资料来源：SMM，钢联，海外知名咨询商，国泰君安期货研究Special report on Guotai Junan Futures4242单位：万吨中国产量中国需求量中国产需平衡中国净进口中国供需平衡海外产量海外需求量海外产需平衡海外供需平衡全球供给量全球需求量全球供需平衡YoyYoyYoyYoyYoyYoy201631743224-5018-3226922794-102-12058666018-1522017363214.4%34988.5%1341014427241.2%28793.1%-155-16663568.4%63786.0%-2220183609-0.6%36634.7%-547-4727681.6%29311.8%-163-17063770.3%65943.4%-21720193543-1.8%3610-1.4%-680-6827930.9%2836-3.3%-42-426336-0.6%6446-2.2%-110202037124.8%38175.7%-105105128010.3%2512-11.4%28818365132.8%6329-1.8%184202138493.7%40095.0%-160157-328883.1%288314.8%5-15267373.4%68928.9%-155202240264.6%40982.2%-7248-242876-0.4%2849-1.2%27-2169022.4%69470.8%-45202341523.1%43025.0%-150139-1129141.3%2786-2.2%128-1170662.4%70882.0%-222024E43224.1%45175.0%-195201629601.6%28080.8%152-5072823.1%73263.4%-432025E(1)2025E(2)2025(3)44222.3%45761.3%-1541701630342.5%28501.5%1841474562.4%74261.4%2944222.3%45170.0%-961606430342.5%28501.5%1842474562.4%73680.6%8844222.3%4427-2.0%-514013530342.5%28501.5%1844474562.4%7277-0.7%178

国泰君安期货能源矿产