> 数据图表一起讨论下国际市场-大豆产量：巴西大豆情况良好2025-4-4国际市场-大豆产量：巴西大豆情况良好• 截至3月29日，巴西大豆收获进度已达到81.4%，去年同期为71%，过去五年同期为67.2%。其中，马托格罗索州、帕拉纳州收获进度均已达到90%或以上，收获进度良好。• 根据CONAB数据，2024/25年度巴西大豆产量预计为1.67亿吨，上一年度为1.48亿吨，同比增加13.3%。而USDA3月报告中对2024/25年度巴西大豆产量预估为1.69亿吨。整体来看，巴西大豆产量与收获情况均较为理想。图表：巴西大豆收获进度图表：巴西大豆产量预估-CONABEstadoTocantinsMaranhãoPiauíBahiaMato GrossoMato Grosso do SulGoiásMinas GeraisSão PauloParanáSanta CatarinaRio Grande do Sul12 estados202430/Mar76.0%40.0%44.0%50.0%96.2%94.0%79.0%71.0%95.0%87.0%36.0%6.0%71.0%Semana até:202523/Mar75.0%55.0%55.0%80.0%98.8%85.0%90.0%86.0%97.0%81.0%45.0%19.0%76.4%29/Mar83.0%58.0%68.0%85.0%99.1%90.0%93.0%93.0%97.0%90.0%53.0%29.0%81.4%Média 5anos67.2%47.2%35.0%43.6%96.3%86.0%83.5%72.6%74.0%68.8%34.2%8.8%67.2%ÁREA (Em mil ha)PRODUTIVIDADE (Em kg/ha)PRODUÇÃO (Em mil t)REGIÃO/UFSafra 23/24 Safra 24/25 VAR. % Safra 23/24 Safra 24/25 VAR. % Safra 23/24 Safra 24/25 VAR. %NORTENORDESTECENTRO-OESTESUDESTESULNORTE/NORDESTECENTRO-SULBRASIL(a)3,389.9 4,406.8 21,423.0 3,556.3 13,373.6 7,796.7 38,352.9 46,149.6(b)3,548.0 4,665.2 22,031.5 3,683.8 13,522.2 8,213.2 39,237.5 47,450.7(b/a) 4.7 5.9 2.8 3.6 1.1 5.3 2.3 2.8(c)3,366 3,578 3,180 3,218 3,064 3,486 3,143 3,201(d) 3,475 3,681 3,747 3,830 3,047 3,592 3,514 3,527(d/c) 3.3 2.9 17.8 19.0 (0.6) 3.0 11.8 10.2(e)(f)11,409.1 15,769.1 68,125.4 11,443.7 40,973.8 27,178.2 120,542.9 147,721.112,330.1 17,170.9 82,560.2 14,107.3 41,201.0 29,501.0 137,868.5 167,369.5(f/e) 8.1 8.9 21.2 23.3 0.6 8.5 14.4 13.3资料来源：CONAB，东证衍生品研究院东证期货健康医疗
