> 数据图表想问下各位网友1.22025-11-31.22026年展望：周期将更加具有韧性，龙头价值属性凸显Ø 反内卷政策趋严本质是对行业“无效产能”扩张的清算，驱使行业由增量转为提质，上市猪企整体资本开支逐步趋于稳中有降。Ø 同时，猪价持续下行下上市猪企利润收窄、现金流承压，多家上市猪企主动终止产能扩张项目，一定程度上放缓产能增长速度，供给压力有望改善。图：15家猪企单季度合计资本开支表：上市猪企资产负债率对比表：主要上市猪企主动终止产能扩张项目400350300250200150100500单季度资本开支(亿元)同比(%)400%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%1Q51024Q51023Q61022Q71021Q81024Q81023Q91022Q02021Q12024Q12023Q22022Q32021Q42024Q42023Q5202资料来源：wind、中国猪业、浙商证券研究所2024Q3 2024Q4 2025Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 25Q3环比25Q3同比牧原股份 58.38% 58.68% 59.20% 56.06% 55.50% -0.56% -2.88%温氏股份 54.86% 53.14% 51.45% 50.57% 49.41% -1.15% -5.44%天邦食品 73.85% 72.58% 71.79% 69.83% 70.27% 0.44% -3.58%傲农生物 112.27% 67.80% 62.76% 60.54% 58.62% -1.92% -53.65%唐人神 65.10% 63.35% 64.73% 64.50% 65.51% 1.01%0.41%天康生物 49.89% 51.49% 51.40% 47.03% 47.86% 0.83% -2.02%0.64%金新农 72.22% 70.37% 71.44% 72.08% 72.86% 0.78%巨星农牧 60.81% 61.91% 62.88% 64.57% 66.62% 2.05%5.82%华统股份 74.42% 72.36% 72.30% 60.42% 60.40% -0.02% -14.02%新五丰 74.33% 74.00% 73.53% 72.46% 73.22% 0.76% -1.11%东瑞股份 44.69% 44.13% 45.40% 44.98% 45.21% 0.24%0.53%神农集团 27.72% 27.39% 27.81% 26.04% 27.07% 1.03% -0.65%正邦科技 47.05% 46.42% 44.91% 45.69% 47.50% 1.81%0.45%京基智农 62.26% 60.25% 58.96% 58.33% 59.20% 0.88% -3.05%大北农 65.29% 63.45% 64.42% 63.98% 64.63% 0.65% -0.66%平均值 62.87% 59.15% 58.86% 57.14% 57.59% 0.46% -5.28%公司名称相关事件天邦食品减租退租猪场降本增效神农集团终止一养猪项目的定增天康生物牧原股份终止两大养殖项目终止7个猪场项目温氏股份终止湖北省的两个养猪项目东瑞股份终止5.5亿元楼房养猪项目唐人神金新农终止部分养殖项目宣布终止两生猪养殖项目11浙商证券农林牧渔
