> 数据图表各位网友请教一下乘用车最新年度/季度预测数据2025-8-6乘用车最新年度/季度预测数据◼ 报废/更新政策落地，乘用车全年消费高景气可期◼ 根据国务院政策例行吹风会，报废补贴范围放宽，我们预测2025Q3/Q4乘用车上险量分别为585/740万辆，同比+0.8%/0.9%，预测2025全年实现2370万辆零售销量，同比+4.1%。（数据来源：交强险，东吴证券研究所142023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q3E2025Q4E2025E内需-交强险口径/万辆乘用车销量自主品牌销量新能源乘用车销量406YOY-13.7%YOY195-6.6%市占率 48.1%123YOY22.3%环比 -27.1%渗透率 30.4%51726.2%24939.1%48.1%17156.0%38.7%33.1%外需-乘联会口径/万辆乘用车出口量新能源乘用车出口77YOY88.3%228993.1%25YOY102.7%215.0%批发-乘联会口径/万辆乘用车批发销量新能源批发销量YOY505-7.2%15026.7%渗透率 29.7%YOY渠道库存总体渠道库存新能源22.44.360227.4%20460.5%33.9%(4.1)7.85492.9%27919.7%50.7%19935.7%16.1%36.2%10037.0%2651.2%6753.5%23626.3%35.0%26.411.962611.3%32820.4%52.3%23840.7%19.8%38.0%11547.9%3068.3%77319.9%29737.4%38.4%31.028.047517.0%25932.9%54.6%17541.5%-26.7%36.8%10637.5%2931.8%55710.3%19429.3%34.8%(23.4)(10.1)488-5.7%27912.3%57.3%23034.4%31.7%47.2%11731.5%2914.7%6152.2%26630.5%43.3%10.17.55805.7%35928.7%61.8%30051.0%30.5%51.8%12222.8%3015.2%662-1.9%32336.5%48.7%(40.3)(7.1)73417.1%46742.5%63.6%37155.9%23.7%50.6%1247.5%326.3%87513.2%43245.7%49.4%17.028.24892.9%30617.9%62.5%23333.4%-37.3%47.7%55714.1%35627.4%63.9%29528.2%26.6%53.0%5850.8%42919.6%73.3%34314.2%16.2%58.6%1125.8%4013515.2%5914114.8%6336.1%103.1%113.9%62812.7%28446.3%45.2%27.410.669913.6%35934.8%51.4%7.25.37208.7%39923.6%55.4%(5.5)(7.0)7400.9%4925.5%66.5%47026.5%37.1%63.5%14113.6%5880.1%8932.1%54626.4%61.1%12.018.023704.1%158816.4%67.0%134124.6%56.6%52912.5%22083.2%29408.5%158830.7%54.0%4127东吴证券综合其他
