> 数据图表怎样理解3.22025-12-33.2风险偏好驱动因素分析30个申万二级行业(不含地产)预期收益率与盈利变化煤炭食品饮料12.5%银行家用电器石油石化公用事业7.5%交通运输建筑装饰汽车通信有色金属非银金融钢铁美容护理基础化工电子机械设备医药生物纺织服饰环保社会服务2.5%建筑材料轻工制造国防军工电力设备农林牧渔预期收益率（%）商贸零售-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.5综合传媒0.0计算机0.51.01.52.02.525Q3 TTM的ROE减去25Q2 TTM的ROE（pc）-2.5%数据来源：wind，浙商证券研究所。注1：左图2026年预期收益率、盈利变化，与前页数据一致，地产预期收益率偏离均值，剔除。注2：右表预期收益率=ROE×（1-分红比例）+股息率= ROE×（1-分红金额/净利润）+分红金额/总市值。2016年的预期收益率=2015年ROE ×（1-2015年分红比例）+2015年分红金额对应2015年12月31日的股息率，以此类推。颜色越红收益率越高。2024年以来银行板块预期收益率与第一名相近煤炭板块20232024202520222020202120192018201720162026非银金融 14.6% 8.6% 9.1% 7.5% 10.7% 8.8% 9.6% 7.0% 6.9% 10.0% 11.6%家用电器 10.7% 12.5% 17.0% 12.2% 13.0% 9.1% 10.9% 11.8% 12.3% 10.8% 10.4%银行 16.1% 14.8% 13.7% 13.9% 13.0% 12.6% 13.6% 14.3% 13.9% 11.7% 10.4%有色金属 0.1% 3.0% 5.2% 2.0% 1.0% 4.5% 11.0% 16.3% 10.1% 9.5% 10.1%8.6% 5.0% 10.6% 12.9% 12.1% 11.2% 16.3% 21.2% 14.6% 11.1% 9.5%石油石化 3.8% 2.6% 4.2% 6.9% 6.3% 4.7% 10.0% 14.3% 11.9% 10.5% 9.5%食品饮料 9.3% 8.4% 9.9% 11.5% 11.2% 11.0% 10.9% 8.1% 9.5% 9.4% 9.0%公用事业 10.3% 8.5% 5.2% 6.0% 6.5% 8.5% 2.3% 5.2% 8.5% 8.2% 7.8%交通运输 7.5% 6.7% 9.2% 7.6% 7.4% 0.9% 8.8% 4.6% 7.7% 7.5% 7.2%建筑装饰 10.7% 10.3% 10.7% 10.9% 10.3% 10.4% 8.9% 9.3% 9.7% 7.8% 7.1%钢铁 -12.0% 1.1% 12.5% 16.2% 8.6% 8.2% 13.0% 4.0% 3.7% -1.2% 7.0%农林牧渔 4.6% 9.0% 6.0% 2.0% 11.1% 13.7% -7.8% 1.7% -1.4% 7.0% 7.0%汽车 10.7% 10.8% 9.6% 8.1% 5.2% 4.5% 4.8% 4.5% 6.4% 6.4% 5.9%6.3% 2.9% 3.5% 0.8% -8.9% 2.8% 3.3% 8.2% 7.2% 6.6% 5.9%通信基础化工 4.9% 4.1% 7.7% 9.7% 2.8% 6.9% 14.2% 11.7% 5.3% 4.9% 4.6%美容护理 13.6% 3.5% 5.1% 6.3% 8.3% -8.6% 8.8% 3.4% 6.9% 4.8% 4.6%4.5% 5.4% 4.6% 4.5% 4.7% 5.2% 9.3% 5.4% 2.7% 3.8% 4.4%机械设备 3.4% 1.8% 5.1% 2.3% 3.7% 6.2% 6.3% 5.8% 5.3% 4.5% 4.4%医药生物 8.9% 9.0% 9.3% 7.4% 5.8% 6.2% 9.0% 7.0% 4.9% 4.1% 3.8%8.2% 7.8% 8.0% 3.9% 4.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.0% 4.7% 3.9% 3.3%纺织服饰 5.8% 5.8% 6.3% 2.3% -0.2% -0.8% 3.3% 2.1% 5.6% 3.1% 2.8%社会服务 6.4% 6.3% 6.7% 2.3% 4.9% -4.6% -6.1% -6.8% 4.3% 2.8% 2.6%建筑材料 3.7% 6.7% 10.2% 15.3% 13.3% 13.0% 13.1% 6.8% 4.8% 2.6% 2.1%电力设备 5.3% 5.4% 6.4% 3.0% 4.6% 6.5% 8.2% 12.0% 8.6% 2.2% 2.1%轻工制造 5.2% 6.7% 9.7% 8.3% 7.8% 6.9% 6.9% 4.0% 4.6% 2.4% 1.8%商贸零售 2.6% 5.2% 6.3% 6.9% 5.9% 2.0% -5.9% -8.1% 2.3% 2.3% 1.8%国防军工 -1.1% 2.3% 3.0% 1.6% 2.1% 3.7% 4.1% 3.8% 3.4% 1.7% 1.7%1.5% 4.9% 4.6% 1.3% -1.1% -2.6% -2.6% -2.2% -6.6% -2.3% 0.8%综合传媒 10.4% 8.9% 5.2% -4.9% -4.8% -0.4% 3.9% 0.6% 3.6% 0.9% 0.3%计算机 8.3% 8.5% 8.1% 4.7% 4.0% 4.0% 3.7% 1.6% 0.9% -0.1% -0.6%28房地产 9.4% 11.1% 12.2% 13.6% 13.2% 11.5% 3.0% -5.2% -2.5% -10.3% -14.9%-1.2pc-3.3pc -2.3pc -0.3pc -1.0pc -2.7pc -7.0pc -0.6pc 0.0pc银行-第一 0.0pc0.0pc电子环保浙商证券综合其他
