> 数据图表一起讨论下美国经济：服务通胀部分缓和，商品通胀因关税再起2025-12-3美国经济：服务通胀部分缓和，商品通胀因关税再起疫情后，通胀一直由住房等服务业抬升，但近期出现变化： 通胀上行驱动：关税上升后，服装等商品价格出现了明显的加速上行；从PCE能看出商品从通胀稳定器到助推器。 通胀下行驱动： 能源品类近期走低是通胀缓和的重要原因； 近几个月住房、医疗也助力服务通胀的缓和。服务通胀是主要驱动，但25年商品的角色从稳定器变为加速器(%)76543210(1)50/8180/8111/8180/0211/0220/1250/1280/1211/1220/2250/2280/2250/0220/0211/9180/912500//9911服务非耐用商品个人消费支出11/2250/3250/5280/5280/4211/4220/5250/4220/4211/322800//3322耐用品公众服务的非盈利组织核心PCE数据来源：BLS，彭博，CEIC，建银国际；数据截至2025-11-2632按主要类别分CPI环比增幅统计（2024-2025年）CPI 权重总共上升多少月平均按月变动13%170.207%9 -0.1018%9 0.033%110.0736%180.328%180.3227%180.366%160.316%130.37分类食品能源除能源、食服装住房商品，主要住宅租金业主住宅等值租金（OER）医疗服务 交通服务2024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/72024/82024/92024/102024/112024/122025/12025/22025/32025/42025/52025/62025/72025/82025/9品0.18-0.10-0.13-0.14-0.17-0.23-0.120.170.020.21-0.040.280.22-0.090.06-0.040.200.210.280.221.340.520.94-1.34-1.57-0.43-0.99-0.95-0.220.092.421.080.20-2.390.67-0.980.95-1.070.691.510.070.060.120.140.240.150.150.320.210.320.290.360.160.44-0.080.290.330.050.460.250.520.570.87-0.21-0.01-0.270.100.99-0.890.080.13-1.380.600.37-0.20-0.420.430.070.500.730.430.460.340.370.230.360.480.270.390.340.270.370.280.220.330.250.180.230.440.210.430.420.350.370.270.470.350.290.300.250.300.350.280.330.340.210.230.260.300.200.440.440.430.420.310.360.470.340.410.250.310.310.280.400.360.270.300.280.380.130.010.500.390.330.19-0.12-0.070.620.330.310.160.020.310.510.510.180.560.79-0.140.281.301.440.85-0.32-0.450.410.831.210.360.120.461.84-0.81-1.410.14-0.200.160.781.010.28按主要类别分CPI环比增幅统计（2018-2019年）CPI 权重13%7%18%3%36%8%27%6%6%总共上升多少月平均按月变动200.14140.16140.0213-0.04240.26240.29240.27220.32170.15分类食品能源除能源、食服装住房商品，主要住宅租金业主住宅等值租金（OER）医疗服务 交通服务2018/12018/22018/32018/42018/52018/62018/72018/82018/92018/102018/112018/122019/12019/22019/32019/42019/52019/62019/72019/82019/92019/102019/112019/12品1.541.520.350.08-2.010.091.600.86-0.04-0.461.300.530.92-3.33-2.23-4.351.863.263.48-0.85-2.540.82-1.31-0.391.061.031.70-0.02-0.02-0.22-0.20-0.340.060.230.140.190.40-0.03-0.01-0.25-0.160.020.020.01-0.030.030.020.090.26-0.040.040.200.000.120.170.140.14-0.050.280.390.260.280.17-0.140.190.050.040.090.220.220.240.170.500.790.520.660.11-0.85-0.56-1.771.370.70-0.73-0.590.090.05-0.690.19-0.110.80-0.02-0.160.21-1.050.05-0.560.260.190.340.300.360.120.280.310.170.280.270.280.280.340.310.360.270.290.260.190.330.130.230.200.340.200.230.340.250.260.320.380.220.270.370.240.280.280.400.390.240.400.310.250.340.190.280.280.260.190.320.310.260.220.290.270.210.280.310.240.250.310.300.330.260.300.250.250.280.190.260.250.440.130.400.220.040.34-0.04-0.260.300.210.440.470.190.170.210.290.490.320.440.590.450.920.490.340.820.850.12-0.210.160.250.240.260.370.12-0.100.000.14-0.08-0.260.11-0.240.080.240.600.290.08-0.15-0.05建银国际证券综合其他
