各位网友请教一下美国数据中心用电增长测算

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各位网友请教一下美国数据中心用电增长测算

2025-12-3

美国数据中心用电增长测算◼ 预计25-27年美国总电量缺口分别为942、917、1015亿千瓦时图表26：美国电力供需缺口及预测单位：亿千瓦时用电量考虑数据中心用电量发电量——煤电——水电——核电——天然气——风电——太阳能发电总电量缺口总装机容量（GW）——煤电——水电——核电——天然气——风电——太阳能发电总装机缺口利用小时数——煤电——水电——核电——天然气——风电——太阳能发电2016年39,0232017年38,643-1%2018年40,0314%40,77612,3912,6788,05713,7932,2703611,0442648010043081223,9074,6883,3668,0923,2052,7961,66740,354-1.0%12,058-2.7%3,00312.1%8,050-0.1%12,977-5.9%2,54312.0%53347.8%1,05410.0254-10.079-0.11000.14409.2876.3275.03,830-2.0%4,7401.1%3,78112.3%8,079-0.2%2,953-7.9%2,9064.0%2,00220.2%41,8103.6%11,495-4.7%2,925-2.6%8,0710.3%14,71813.4%2,7277.2%63819.8%1,06410.1241-13.7800.299-0.245414.2946.8324.93,9312.6%4,7760.8%3,675-2.8%8,1170.5%3,2449.9%2,892-0.5%2,0261.2%yoyyoyyoyyoyyoyyoyyoyyoyyoy——新增——新增——新增——新增——新增——新增——新增yoyyoyyoyyoyyoyyoyyoy2019年39,544-1%41,306-1.2%9,650-16.1%2,879-1.6%8,0940.3%15,8857.9%2,9598.5%71912.7%1,0684.4227-13.979-0.198-1.34605.81039.2375.53,867-1.6%4,254-10.9%3,622-1.5%8,2491.6%3,4576.6%2,860-1.1%1,943-4.1%2020年38,559-2%1,00040,098-2.9%7,734-19.9%2,853-0.9%7,899-2.4%16,2682.4%3,37914.2%89224.0%1,08416.2214-12.9800.297-1.64688.611814.64810.63,698-4.4%3,615-15.0%3,582-1.1%8,185-0.8%3,4750.5%2,8630.1%1,875-3.5%2021年2022年2023年2024年2025E2026E2027E39,4482%1,15015%41,0972.5%8,98016.1%2,516-11.8%7,796-1.3%15,792-2.9%3,78211.9%1,15329.2%1,11430.1208-5.6800.096-1.04735.313314.66113.43,688-0.3%4,31119.2%3,160-11.8%8,160-0.3%3,335-4.0%2,852-0.4%1,8890.8%40,6693%1,34017%42,3072.9%8,315-7.4%2,5481.3%7,715-1.0%16,8716.8%4,34314.8%1,43824.8%1,12914.9188-20.5800.295-0.948410.21418.67211.23,7471.6%4,4262.7%3,1941.1%8,151-0.1%3,4884.6%3,0747.8%1,9905.3%40,112-1%1,76031%41,833-1.1%6,751-18.8%2,450-3.8%7,7490.4%18,0617.1%4,211-3.0%1,65515.1%1,15526.2177-10.980-0.1961.14895.31476.09119.13,621-3.4%3,814-13.8%3,074-3.7%8,096-0.7%3,6945.9%2,859-7.0%1,813-8.9%41,1042%2,24027%43,0863.0%6,522-3.4%2,429-0.9%7,8190.9%18,6993.5%4,5197.3%2,19832.8%1,19842.6172-4.580-0.2971.14890.51535.312230.53,597-0.7%3,781-0.9%3,054-0.7%8,080-0.2%3,8213.4%2,9623.6%1,804-0.5%42,6694%2,78824%44,8034.0%6,281-3.7%2,4320.1%7,814-0.1%18,9051.1%4,8186.6%2,73324.3%9421,23941.2167-5.0800.1970.04911.61618.015230.026.0 3,6160.5%3,750-0.8%3,0540.0%8,075-0.1%3,8500.8%3,0001.3%1,800-0.2%43,5032%3,40822%45,6782.0%6,012-4.3%2,4350.1%7,809-0.1%19,2872.0%5,0585.0%3,26419.4%9171,27939.5162-5.0800.1970.04953.51698.018230.025.7 3,572-1.2%3,700-1.3%3,0540.0%8,070-0.1%3,9001.3%3,0000.0%1,795-0.3%44,4272%4,11521%46,4261.6%5,748-4.4%2,4350.0%7,805-0.1%19,4230.7%5,2984.7%3,79216.2%1,0151,31839.4157-5.0800.0970.04983.51778.021230.028.8 3,522-1.4%3,650-1.4%3,0540.0%8,065-0.1%3,9000.0%3,0000.0%1,790-0.3%资料来源：EIA，Wind，中国信通院，RAND，TIA，BerkeleyLab，国盛证券研究所18

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