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2025-12-4

2.42026年白银：供需平衡只是参考，金价才是指南针表：2016-2025年白银供需平衡表（百万盎司）2019201820162017202020212022202320242025F2024年同比同比 2025F供应矿产产量回收净对冲供应净官方部门销售总供应需求工业总需求电气与电子… 其中光伏钎焊合金与焊料其他工业摄影珠宝银器净实物投资净对冲需求总需求市场平衡市场平衡ETPs 净投资不含 ETPs 的市场平衡名义银价（美元 / 盎司，伦敦价）银价涨跌幅金价涨跌幅900.1156.301.11,057.40863.9160.2011,025.1049130981.649.1132.934.7189.153.5212.912993.364.153.910.2528339.199.350.913832.4196.259.4155.81.1972.952.27.245.117.1417.05---0.5%12.7%850.8162.301.21,014.30525.8330.48752143.531.4203.267.1165.97.41,000.8013.5-21.434.915.71-7.9%-0.9%837.4163.813.911,016.20525.4326.674.952.4146.430.7201.661.3187.401,006.409.883.3-73.5783.8180.58.51.2974511.9321.482.847.5142.926.9150.931.2208.1092945.1331.1830.8190.701.51,023.10564.1350.788.950.5162.927.718240.7284.33.51,102.40-79.364.9-286.1-144.3839.4193.501.71,034.60592.3370.7118.149.2172.427.7234.573.5338.317.91,284.20-249.6-117.4-132.2812.7183.501.6997.8657.1444.4192.750.2162.627.3203.155.1244.311.51,198.50-200.6-37.6-163819.7193.901.51,015.10680.5460.5197.651.6168.425.5208.754.2190.94.31,164.10-148.961.6-210.5835193.20.91.51,030.60677.4465.6195.752.9158.924.2196.246204.401,148.30-117.670-187.616.2120.5525.1421.7323.3528.27503.2%18.4%26.8% 22.3%24.6% -4.3%-13.6%0.4%7.5%14.6%21.1%25.5%76.9%56.1%1%6%na-9%2%4%4%3%3%4%-7%3%-2%-22%-62%-3%-26%na29%21%21%21%2%0%na4%2%0%1%-1%3%-6%-5%-6%-15%7%na-1%-21%14%-11%77%77%77%资料来源：世界白银协会，浙商证券研究所33

浙商证券能源矿产