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咨询大家2.1.1 新兴需求:2025E、2026E全球动储需求同比+45%、+29%

2025-12-1
咨询大家2.1.1 新兴需求:2025E、2026E全球动储需求同比+45%、+29%
2.1.1 新兴需求:2025E、2026E全球动储需求同比+45%、+29%◆ 我们预计全球25年动储需求2028Gwh,同增45%,同时我们预计26年动储需求2620Gwh,同增29%,此后依靠海外电动化提速和储能持续高增,仍可维持15-25%复合增长。表:动力及储能需求增速预期海外:乘用车动力电池装机需求(Gwh)202320242025 E2026 E2027 E2028 E2029 E2030 E311.3324.0399.1468.1564.8680.7820.5989.0-海外平均单车带电量(kwh)61.158.356.252.851.050.349.749.0国内:动力电池装机需求(Gwh)3895337378739881,0921,1931,287-国内平均单车带电量(kwh)46.946.051.455.457.558.559.661.0全球动力电池装机需求(Gwh)YoY71539%87623%1,16933%1,4021,6351,8852,1672,48519.9%16.6%15.3%14.9%14.7%-全球平均单车带电量(kwh)53.451.154.656.957.958.559.360.2全球动力电池实际需求(Gwh)YoY全球储能电池合计(Gwh)YoY国内储能电池(Gwh)海外储能电池(Gwh)全球动力+储能电池实际需求合计(Gwh)87325%20461%771271,0691,4261,7101,9952,3002,6433,03223%32961%14418533%60283%23636519.9%16.6%15.3%14.9%14.7%91051%3575531,25037%4877631,56125%5511,0091,88721%6231,2642,27220%7091,5631,0771,3982,0282,6203,2453,8604,5305,304YoY31%30%45%29%24%19%17%17%数据来源:Marklines,东吴证券研究所12