> 数据图表咨询下各位2.1 26年国内预测：挖机温和复苏，资金到位率是关键2025-12-12.1 26年国内预测：挖机温和复苏，资金到位率是关键◼ 国内市场由资金主导：2024年以来京津冀地区平均增速远高于其他地区，主要系2023年底增发的万亿国债发挥作用。根据国务院新闻办的发言，23年底增发的万亿国债专门支持以京津冀为重点的华北地区等灾后恢复重建。具体领域来看，超过一半用于防洪排涝等相关水利设施建设，20%用于京津冀灾后重建，与小挖需求高相对应。图：2024年以来国内各省份挖机销售情况2024M1 2024M22024M32024M42024M52024M62024M72024M82024M92024M102024M112024M122025M12025M22025M32025M42025M5北京天津河北山西内蒙古辽宁吉林黑龙江上海江苏浙江安徽福建江西山东河南湖北湖南广东广西海南重庆四川贵州云南西藏陕西甘肃青海宁夏新疆出口合计-14%-54%-29%-62%-61%-59%-73%-26%-57%-48%-63%-61%-43%-50%-58%-53%-59%-55%-58%-32%-25%-41%-48%-53%-27%27%-61%-53%-42%-8%-24%-32%-41%京津冀平均增速 217% -32%其他地区平均增速 73%-45%469%111%70%28%6%56%35%259%100%43%34%-2%105%76%3%32%44%59%136%100%128%84%27%32%156%164%4%19%67%173%80%-1%19%54%42%44%-9%2%-8%-38%51%3%4%-1%0%1%22%-10%2%45%-2%7%35%-9%2%44%-16%8%26%7%2%43%12%8%-16%-2%47%8%91%97%42%67%-5%-12%26%92%29%5%3%-1%-9%-3%-19%14%38%19%-6%50%41%-15%7%17%10%27%17%9%20%3%18%-13%0%77%16%42%32%211%47%3%-4%79%202%-6%0%8%25%27%41%26%41%13%11%2%72%-8%12%29%-14%19%27%43%12%17%58%11%-9%6%95%28%56%325%191%31%14%-8%1%144%6%-15%-7%34%-2%4%39%27%25%15%18%78%67%39%31%-14%24%1%16%27%5%26%17%-8%5%191%23%25%83%96%-7%4%45%57%156%26%-5%-5%-6%18%46%10%8%25%45%17%86%66%12%44%3%-2%11%28%15%4%38%29%-1%9%68%27%45%70%37%6%2%11%24%193%-16%-18%-11%-1%22%36%6%2%26%57%-12%112%56%60%43%11%26%-29%39%45%16%40%8%7%12%50%27%13%50%12%-3%26%6%23%115%-17%1%7%2%1%7%34%21%65%34%18%65%187%8%35%24%28%-41%21%49%9%0%22%3%11%25%27%66%54%4%-3%-6%34%21%79%18%9%-10%21%-4%-5%28%42%25%43%8%50%298%6%30%57%46%-12%31%21%11%34%3%9%15%41%31%44%25%31%-8%-14%70%102%117%36%1%-6%36%5%1%18%1%42%70%26%42%93%35%11%29%34%-8%4%-12%-6%15%11%15%18%33%27%68%156%25%-17%9%45%49%189%26%13%-15%46%31%1%33%18%72%2%29%25%113%1%1%65%43%-20%26%-16%13%31%11%11%16%83%29%20%-37%7%3%-9%39%39%-6%13%-5%-4%33%-22%-35%30%46%6%5%-34%-7%12%-14%29%-5%-4%-21%7%-3%83%-27%-17%2%1%-3%5%133%210%111%104%66%127%125%217%114%85%103%133%50%86%90%110%146%102%91%67%224%71%114%125%109%-24%119%123%111%59%87%13%53%151%105%71%76%63%7%-7%49%53%102%11%3%20%16%39%-12%36%45%14%33%45%-2%136%16%24%22%44%24%23%31%49%49%57%3%18%70%33%21%51%22%-12%1%29%15%39%57%-12%27%13%44%-4%51%15%-2%17%8%-8%95%47%29%3%23%1%-1%40%105%38%20%19%18%31%24%数据来源：工程机械行业协会，东吴证券研究所-6%86%-52%-22%-32%33%-23%-1%0%15%13%6%24%-31%13%4%2%-1%4%-25%105%53%10%18%29%0%-23%33%44%7%18%5%2%9%10%11东吴证券综合其他
