如何了解国内：储能盈利模式改善，IRR反转带动向上预期

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如何了解国内：储能盈利模式改善，IRR反转带动向上预期

2025-12-3

国内：储能盈利模式改善，IRR反转带动向上预期p 以甘肃独立储能项目为例，假设100MW/400MWh独立储能电站，综合建设成本0.87元/kwh，贷款比例70%。同时，峰谷价差0.2元/kwh，容量电价330元/kW/年，调频补偿12元/MW/次。则测算得到该项目全投资IRR 8.5%、资本金IRR 14.8%。p 储能政策逻辑清晰，政策托底储能需求释放，同时各省陆续发布相关储能收益机制政策，例如储能容量电价政策各省正积极探索、国家级方案也有望加快出台，收益机制逐步完善驱动经济性反转提升，未来国内储能新增需求有望超预期。图表6：国内独立储能IRR对峰谷价差和容量电价变化的敏感性分析（以甘肃为例）资本金IRR峰谷价差(元/KWh)8.46%135150165180195210225240255270285300315330容量补偿（元/KW·年）资料来源：中泰证券研究所测算0.1-0.46%0.08%0.60%1.10%1.58%2.03%2.46%2.87%3.27%3.66%4.05%4.44%4.81%5.19%0.151.81%2.26%2.68%3.09%3.50%3.89%4.28%4.66%5.04%5.41%5.78%6.14%6.50%6.85%0.23.73%4.12%4.51%4.89%5.27%5.64%6.01%6.37%6.73%7.08%7.43%7.78%8.12%8.46%0.255.50%5.87%6.24%6.60%6.96%7.31%7.66%8.01%8.35%8.69%9.03%9.35%9.66%9.95%0.37.19%7.54%7.89%8.24%8.58%8.92%9.25%9.57%9.86%10.13%10.38%10.64%10.89%11.14%0.358.81%9.15%9.48%9.78%10.04%10.30%10.56%10.81%11.07%11.32%11.57%11.82%12.06%12.31%0.410.22%10.48%10.74%10.99%11.24%11.50%11.75%11.99%12.24%12.49%12.73%12.97%13.22%13.45%0.4511.42%11.67%11.92%12.17%12.42%12.66%12.91%13.15%13.39%13.63%13.87%14.11%14.34%14.58%0.512.60%12.84%13.09%13.33%13.57%13.81%14.05%14.28%14.52%14.76%14.99%15.23%15.46%15.69%0.5513.75%13.99%14.22%14.46%14.70%14.93%15.17%15.40%15.64%15.87%16.10%16.33%16.56%16.79%7

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