> 数据图表怎样理解1.2.2 银行股的风险底线本质是国家信用，估值向1倍PB回归是大势所趋2025-11-11.2.2 银行股的风险底线本质是国家信用，估值向1倍PB回归是大势所趋当前上市银行深度破净的估值意味着仍预期超8%的潜在不良率，这与银行系统性风险上行趋势得到扭转、风险压力趋稳缓释的现状存在明显背离注：估值破净隐含银行潜在风险将“击穿”当期利润、拨备余额“缓冲垫”，并抵减净资产。因此此处估值隐含不良率=（2025E税前利润+2025E拨备余额+2025E净资产*（1-PB））/2025E贷款规模。www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告资料来源：Wind，公司财报，申万宏源研究12银行工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行邮储银行招商银行中信银行民生银行浦发银行兴业银行光大银行华夏银行平安银行浙商银行南京银行宁波银行江苏银行上海银行杭州银行苏州银行重庆银行成都银行无锡银行常熟银行江阴银行苏农银行张家港行瑞丰银行渝农商行沪农商行上市银行PB-LF2025/11/17(1)不良率+关注率（2）当前估值隐含不良率0.760.721.060.700.670.990.620.320.520.580.420.360.510.480.780.870.780.610.860.740.710.830.610.790.630.570.620.570.59..2.66%2.65%2.55%2.48%1.86%1.87%2.31%2.96%2.60%2.16%2.51%3.18%2.10%2.72%1.67%1.52%1.68%2.36%1.52%1.66%2.31%1.34%1.56%1.52%1.71%1.80%1.88%1.96%2.29%.%.%7.44%8.01%-7.98%7.02%6.45%9.21%12.99%9.92%10.53%12.04%14.16%11.65%8.87%7.68%6.36%7.98%12.20%8.09%9.56%7.91%6.51%10.41%8.28%10.04%10.98%9.82%10.79%13.57%.%.%（1）不良率+关注率（2）估值隐含不良率测算不良率（3Q25）关注率（2Q25）2025E税前利润（亿元）2025E拨备余额（亿元）1.33%1.32%1.27%1.24%0.94%0.94%1.16%1.48%1.29%1.08%1.26%1.58%1.05%1.36%0.83%0.76%0.84%1.18%0.76%0.83%1.14%0.68%0.78%0.76%0.85%0.90%0.94%0.98%1.12%.%.%1.33%1.33%1.28%1.24%0.92%0.93%1.16%1.48%1.31%1.08%1.25%1.60%1.05%1.36%0.84%0.76%0.84%1.18%0.76%0.83%1.17%0.66%0.78%0.76%0.86%0.90%0.94%0.98%1.17%.%4,1743,7253,2173,0659071,79785433153587645628753817525933641027621767701572554222321201368,5988,31910,1995,8162,2982,7811,4519631,5241,577897681865423366452679410404132149248559237424648340,.%,,,2025E净资产（亿元）42,33935,80232,84531,51711,09413,2818,5796,7637,6709,4706,1673,8265,2432,1282,1622,5693,4322,7151,6936296829632523452052002122091,4052025E贷款（亿元）307,555275,993272,176231,59497,15473,70560,63345,39557,68960,80840,91324,13634,07819,22614,32317,52123,15214,33910,6873,8005,2608,6731,7232,6251,3531,3841,4971,4607,750,,,税前利润隐含不良率1.36%1.35%1.18%1.32%0.93%2.44%1.41%0.73%0.93%1.44%1.11%1.19%1.58%0.91%1.81%1.92%1.77%1.93%2.03%1.75%1.33%1.81%1.47%2.06%1.66%1.70%1.38%1.35%1.76%.%.%拨备隐含不破净隐含不良率2.80%3.01%3.75%2.51%2.37%3.77%2.39%2.12%2.64%2.59%2.19%2.82%2.54%2.20%2.56%2.58%2.93%2.86%3.78%3.46%2.83%2.86%3.17%3.52%2.71%3.05%3.06%3.29%4.38%.%.%良率3.28%3.64%-0.76%4.15%3.72%0.23%5.41%10.14%6.35%6.50%8.73%10.15%7.53%5.76%3.32%1.86%3.28%7.41%2.28%4.35%3.74%1.84%5.77%2.70%5.67%6.23%5.38%6.14%7.42%.%.%申万宏源综合其他
