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想关注一下2.3 关注金市业务占比较高的中小银行基数压力

2025-11-1
想关注一下2.3 关注金市业务占比较高的中小银行基数压力
2.3 关注金市业务占比较高的中小银行基数压力◼ 以处置AC类和FVOCI类资产的投资收益占其他非息收入比重,以及年化投资回报率(其他非息收入/平均金融投资余额)衡量银行债市收益兑现力度,部分股份行以及农商行对于浮盈兑现的力度更大,也与利息净收入承压背景下,主动稳营收诉求有关。◼ 考 虑到 净资 产中其 他综 合收 益(即FVOCI类资产的浮盈)对单季其他非息收入仍能充分覆盖,短期稳营收仍有空间,但需关注2026年这部分金市业务收入依赖度较高的中小银行所面临的基数压力,主要体现在两方面:其一,存量债券兑现空间压缩下非息收入增速回落;其二,若提前大幅处置AC类及FVOCI类债券,金融投资生息收益率回落也更快于同业,影响利息收入表现。银行投资相关其他非息收入(单季,亿元)净资产:其他综合收益(亿元)处置AC类金融资产的投资收益/当期其处置FVOCI类金融资产的投资收益/当期投资相关其他非息收入-YoY金融投资生息收益率年化投资回报率(其他非息收入/平均金金融投资总回报率(年化投资回报率+638420249.2%他非息收入20241H251.1%8.7%9.4%融投资余额)20249M25生息收益率)其他非息收入9M2520249M251H25202420241H251Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 2024 2Q25 3Q2510.0%7.4%27.6% 3.12% 2.81% 0.58% 0.66% 3.70% 3.47%4.6%21.6%工行 191 200 202 156 171 294 292 477 469 242 23.7% 50.6% 31.0% 3.09% 2.89% 0.55% 0.65% 3.64% 3.55%5.4%7.2%22.2%建行 119 153 159 123 107 317 141 579 433 214 26.3% 31.7% 2.99% 2.77% 0.43% 0.50% 3.42% 3.26%5.5%6.9%13.2% 41.9%农行 124 168 115 135 181 179 177 818 827 672 35.0% 22.2% 3.18% 2.94% 1.37% 1.49% 4.55% 4.43%5.7%8.9%1.8%2.5%中行 230 245 342 229 316 358 324 953 893 659 6.2%8.9%15.2% 27.5% 3.06% 2.82% 0.66% 0.68% 3.72% 3.50%36.2%8.2%91 邮储104 40 4.6%7.5%13.5% 26.8% 34.1% -11.4% 3.08% 2.89% 1.62% 1.21% 4.70% 4.10%433 370 262 招行 142 160 11.3% 19.4% 23.4% 19.7% -17.0% 2.88% 2.62% 1.40% 1.12% 4.27% 3.74%7.0%中信 104 96 169 104 43 36.6% 2.93% 2.76% 0.84% 1.04% 3.76% 3.80%20.5% 12.9% 16.4%9.6%43 72 40 民生57 49 -2.7% 3.31% 3.14% 1.25% 1.20% 4.56% 4.34%17.9%11.7% 25.5%6.0%56 130 101 浦发 103 76 6.6%11.2% 23.2%-9.3% 3.28% 3.15% 1.21% 1.16% 4.49% 4.31%0.6%53 63 56 兴业 143 111 3.5%19.7%1.3%21.7% 35.6% -32.5% 3.14% 2.90% 0.88% 0.57% 4.02% 3.47%48 43 67 109 64 光大0.4%1.7%13.8% 24.8% 81.1% -29.6% 3.11% 2.88% 1.83% 1.08% 4.95% 3.96%47 华夏90 48 29 -3 12.7%2.6%68.7% -24.1% 3.04% 2.85% 1.94% 1.29% 4.98% 4.15%5.8%64 7 16 21 86 平安10.3% 26.7% 35.0% 61.7% -11.8% 3.00% 2.87% 1.78% 1.43% 4.78% 4.30%4.7%51 25 43 63 38 浙商24.0%6.2%16.4% 15.4% -12.8% 3.09% 2.74% 1.10% 0.76% 4.19% 3.51%38 23 56 99 42 北京11.1% 10.6% 17.6% 30.9% -16.2% 3.15% 2.75% 2.03% 1.44% 5.18% 4.19%4.1%53 10 38 55 南京24 0.0%0.0%-9.0% 3.15% 2.78% 1.07% 0.96% 4.22% 3.75%46 90 156 125 40 宁波27.2% 17.7% -24.1% 3.14% 2.78% 1.47% 0.95% 4.61% 3.73%0.0%-0.3%60 江苏49 93 101 56 25.4% 57.8% 14.7% 2.97% 2.75% 1.24% 1.29% 4.21% 4.04%33.6% 38.5%39 29 67 76 40 上海-2.9% 18.1%23.3% 35.3% -24.7% 3.30% 2.97% 1.10% 0.74% 4.40% 3.71%25 27 46 56 27 杭州1.5%15.4% 12.0% 23.5% 52.0% -14.6% 3.12% 2.64% 1.39% 1.02% 4.51% 3.66%7 4 12 17 9 苏州36.2% 32.3% 15.0% 39.8% 12.5% -13.0% 3.36% 2.96% 1.16% 0.92% 4.53% 3.87%8 -3 3 13 12 成都20.4%3.61% 3.02% 0.91% 0.72% 4.52% 3.74%0.0%11.1% 40.2% 11.2%7 重庆7 25 18 5 6.3%-0.2% 15.3%25.4% 22.7% 16.8% 3.13% 2.78% 0.88% 1.07% 4.00% 3.85%11 2 6 14 13 长沙23.7% 41.1% 12.6% -38.1% 2.88% 2.62% 0.80% 0.47% 3.68% 3.10%0.3%0.0%4 19 28 38 8 齐鲁0.0%0.0%19.2% 62.9% 59.2% -3.2% 2.88% 2.64% 1.09% 0.79% 3.97% 3.43%4 4 6 10 3 厦门22.9% 60.7% 13.3% 11.4% 21.3% 11.5% 2.69% 2.40% 1.54% 1.73% 4.23% 4.13%4 2 3 4 4 无锡12.4% 52.6%15.0% 25.9% 20.0% 3.25% 2.78% 1.76% 2.14% 5.01% 4.92%4 常熟5 8 8 5 32.3% 21.9% 2.73% 2.00% 1.82% 2.03% 4.56% 4.03%38.3% 70.7%3.0%0 2 2 4 3 江阴1.0%2.87% 2.59% 2.00% 2.19% 4.87% 4.78%4 6 10 5 苏农4 28.5% 28.3%100.4% 20.1% 2.07% 1.93% 1.99% 2.81% 4.06% 4.74%3 6 7 4 张家港 4 1.7%38.7% 54.6% 75.9% -16.4% 2.68% 2.65% 1.95% 1.48% 4.63% 4.13%2.9%2 7 10 4 3 瑞丰48.8% 55.9% 24.6% 26.5% 76.9% 57.5% 2.59% 2.36% 1.19% 1.63% 3.77% 3.99%紫金2 2 6 3 1 0.1%3.00% 2.81% 0.88% 0.91% 3.88% 3.72%0.0%41 62 84 11 14 沪农渝农46.1% 55.5% -22.4% 3.08% 2.86% 0.68% 0.57% 3.75% 3.43%30.5% 17.0%11 16 41 29 8 四大行 664 766 818 644 774 1,148 934 2,827 2,622 1,787 6.0% 18.6% 7.5% 10.7% 28.0% 27.1% 3.10% 2.85% 0.67% 0.76% 3.76% 3.61%国有行 885 1,005 1,006 901 998 1,436 1,154 3,076 2,843 1,949 5.5% 18.4% 6.6%9.9% 22.9% 23.9% 3.12% 2.89% 0.71% 0.79% 3.83% 3.68%6.7% 14.7% 10.9% 18.8% 29.3% -12.1% 3.09% 2.90% 1.36% 1.11% 4.44% 4.01%股份行 751 760 568 711 617 814 397 1,100 851 528 城商行 .%.%农商行 48 16.7% 29.3% 11.8% 29.4% 43.1% 2.1% 2.77% 2.49% 1.06% 1.10% 3.84% 3.59%67 上市银行 1,994 2,130 1,874 1,921 1,932 2,639 1,772 5,011 4,342 2,830 6.5% 17.1% 8.8% 15.3% 25.5% 5.7% 3.04% 2.76% 0.94% 0.89% 3.97% 3.65%127 102 133 144 111 152 79 100 77 65 57 70 107 75 94 112 124 67 52 49 50 99 10 109 78 43 88 41 38 51 48 31 41 53 47 56 44 42 23 36 41 47 47 41 51 26 21 29 9 6 9 14 9 8 7 2 12 15 11 5 6 4 4 3 2 5 4 4 2 3 6 7 5 4 3 4 4 3 5 5 2 3 3 3 2 3 4 14 12 9 6 9 1326.8% 37.6% -6.2%4.4%6.0%4.3%59 95 79 47 78 79 35 61 53 41 25 47 31 59 36 20 8 10 5 10 5 2 2 5 1 2 3 4 1 11 980 89 56 51 49 66 -2 20 33 35 12 29 20 40 43 8 5 4 6 15 1 4 3 4 0 3 3 2 0 11 512.1% 42.8% 30.4%3.2%42.8% 25.6% 29.2% 31.5%.%.%173 1283350.%-.% .%60318.3%4.2%.%.%.%.%.%--7.8%37535.8%4.3%7.1%3.9%www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告资料来源:Wind,公司财报,申万宏源研究35