> 数据图表如何才能涨价：碳酸锂价格超15万，新项目观望情绪重2026-2-3涨价：碳酸锂价格超15万，新项目观望情绪重◆ 储能系统和电芯企业定价：新订单价格传导较快，老订单仍在博弈。储能电芯新订单可即使传导碳酸锂涨价，最新价格接近4分/wh，但老订单（如 25Q4签订的合同）尚未传导涨价，仍在谈判。◆ 储能系统和业主方定价：老项目合同签订时基本已确定价格，重新议价概率低，因此老项目成本上涨主要由系统集成商承担（电池企业也会承担一部分，取决双方谈判结果）◆ 碳酸锂超过15万/吨 ，国内项目平均收益率低于6%，项目延期：电池价格每涨2分，对应irr下降1pct，国内储能项目平均收益率8-10%。考虑其他材料上涨，碳酸锂价格超过15万/吨，一定比例项目受影响（电芯价格+8分，irr下降4pct）；超过20万/吨，较大比例项目受到影响（电芯价格+0.12元，irr下降6pct）。图：碳酸锂价格对应铁锂电芯售价（元/wh）弹性测算图：碳酸锂价格对于储能irr弹性测算（甘肃为例）0.38467891011121314151617181920212223碳酸锂价格（万元/吨）8%0.320.320.330.340.340.350.350.360.360.370.380.380.390.390.400.400.410.42电芯企业毛利率10%0.320.330.340.340.350.350.360.370.370.380.380.390.390.400.410.410.420.4212%0.330.340.340.350.350.360.370.370.380.380.390.400.400.410.410.420.430.4315%0.340.340.350.360.360.370.380.380.390.390.400.410.410.420.420.430.440.44储能电站irr储能电站年运行天数2903103002803203308.60% 2700.260.270.280.290.30.310.320.330.340.350.360.370.380.390.40.410.420.430.449.4% 10.3% 11.2% 12.1% 13.0% 13.8% 14.7%8.7% 9.6% 10.5% 11.4% 12.2% 13.1% 13.9%8.1% 8.9% 9.8% 10.6% 11.5% 12.3% 13.2%7.4% 8.3% 9.1% 10.0% 10.8% 11.6% 12.4%6.8% 7.7% 8.5% 9.3% 10.1% 10.9% 11.7%6.2% 7.0% 7.9% 8.7% 9.5% 10.3% 11.0%5.7% 6.5% 7.3% 8.1% 8.8% 9.6% 10.4%5.1% 5.9% 6.7% 7.5% 8.2% 9.0% 9.8%4.6% 5.4% 6.1% 6.9% 7.7% 8.4% 9.2%4.1% 4.8% 5.6% 6.4% 7.1% 7.9% 8.6%3.6% 4.3% 5.1% 5.8% 6.6% 7.3% 8.0%3.1% 3.9% 4.6% 5.3% 6.1% 6.8% 7.5%2.6% 3.4% 4.1% 4.9% 5.6% 6.3% 7.0%2.2% 2.9% 3.7% 4.4% 5.1% 5.8% 6.5%1.8% 2.5% 3.2% 3.9% 4.6% 5.3% 6.0%0.3% 1.0% 1.7% 2.3% 3.0% 3.7% 4.3%0.3% 1.0% 1.7% 2.3% 3.0% 3.7% 4.3%0.3% 1.0% 1.7% 2.3% 3.0% 3.7% 4.3%0.3% 1.0% 1.7% 2.3% 3.0% 3.7% 4.3%电芯价格（元/wh）数据来源：Marklines，东吴证券研究所测算39东吴证券综合其他
