> 数据图表如何才能房地产行业虽承压，但风险仍有改善空间2026-3-3房地产行业虽承压，但风险仍有改善空间◼ 对公不良压力仍集中在房地产行业。2025H1上市银行对公房地产不良率走势分化，部分银行改善幅度较大但另一部分银行边际仍承压（浦发、上海、江苏、重庆抬升幅度均超100bp ），部分银行建筑业不良水平亦同步抬升。对公房地产不良率变化差异或源于：（1）规模管控：部分银行持续压降房地产敞口，分母因素导致不良率上升；（2）不良处置策略：对于积极核销清收的银行而言，其具有改善对公地产不良指标的空间，相反部分银行集中资源处置零售不良，对公风险留于表内，导致地产不良率上行；（3）各家行房地产风险暴露的节奏的差异性：部分银行前期暴露较充分，其余银行受项目进度及区域房价持续调整影响，房地产风险仍处暴露阶段，其风险仍待缓释。◼ 未来房地产风险或仍存改善空间。如经营性物业贷置换债务的政策延长至2026年，故房企将高息开发贷置换为低息经营性物业贷的时间更加充裕，现金流改善下，其违约风险亦降低；此外尽管部分银行当前房地产存量风险仍未出清，在指标上体现为不良率上升。但随着时间推移，各家银行风险项目暴露程度预计将逐渐趋近，通过观测风险贷款暴露程度较高的银行房地产不良率走势（例如招商银行），叠加商业银行运用各自方式处置不良资产，我们认为房地产新生成的不良压力可逐步化解。表8：当前房地产行业不良率绝对水平仍较高资料来源：Wind，华源证券研究所25房地产工商银行建设银行农业银行中国银行邮储银行交通银行招商银行浦发银行兴业银行中信银行民生银行光大银行平安银行华夏银行浙商银行上海银行江苏银行南京银行宁波银行杭州银行长沙银行成都银行重庆银行贵阳银行青岛银行齐鲁银行郑州银行苏州银行厦门银行沪农商行渝农商行青农商行20192020H120202021H120212022H120222023H120232024H120242025H11.71%0.94%1.45%0.53%0.02%0.33%0.44%2.63%0.84%1.19%0.28%0.45%1.18%0.07%0.29%0.10%0.58%0.81%1.02%0.27%0.02%1.79%1.46%0.52%0.24%0.15%0.00%0.85%8.62%1.64%1.41%1.08%1.47%0.41%0.01%1.43%0.34%4.40%0.76%1.23%0.25%0.41%0.32%0.25%0.23%0.43%0.04%1.17%0.12%0.02%1.71%2.79%0.43%0.26%0.47%0.43%1.19%0.00%1.84%2.32%1.31%1.81%4.68%0.02%1.35%0.30%2.07%0.92%3.35%0.69%0.73%0.21%0.01%0.09%2.39%0.04%1.37%2.79%0.01%3.88%6.33%0.49%0.31%1.25%1.36%1.50%0.00%2.34%4.29%1.56%1.54%4.91%0.01%1.69%1.07%3.03%0.66%3.11%1.04%0.61%0.57%0.17%0.61%2.73%0.22%1.48%2.63%0.00%6.28%4.57%0.30%1.89%1.23%1.37%6.18%2.39%4.79%1.85%3.39%5.05%0.02%1.25%1.41%2.75%1.08%3.63%2.66%1.23%0.22%0.66%0.62%3.05%1.41%0.08%0.93%3.78%1.18%4.71%3.77%0.00%1.45%3.47%6.65%1.24%0.00%3.44%5.47%2.98%3.97%5.67%1.01%1.90%2.82%3.83%2.15%2.89%2.99%2.56%0.77%0.62%0.90%2.89%1.70%1.01%0.87%3.46%2.70%6.15%2.59%1.72%3.36%5.58%1.32%0.00%1.80%6.14%4.36%5.48%7.23%1.45%2.80%4.08%3.06%1.30%3.08%4.28%3.89%1.43%2.82%1.66%2.56%1.92%0.96%0.41%3.45%2.40%5.88%2.55%0.10%2.52%4.06%4.55%4.81%1.39%7.28%6.10%6.68%4.76%5.79%5.11%1.01%3.39%5.52%2.88%0.81%5.29%5.13%4.22%1.01%3.77%2.31%2.06%2.13%1.06%0.28%3.85%2.17%7.14%2.20%0.24%6.78%4.19%3.20%5.22%1.78%9.10%3.02%5.37%5.64%5.42%5.51%2.45%4.99%5.26%4.11%0.84%2.59%4.92%5.33%0.86%4.21%2.48%2.11%2.54%0.61%0.10%6.36%0.60%3.04%6.48%1.83%2.30%1.37%6.48%2.60%4.70%2.18%9.27%1.36%5.35%5.20%5.42%4.94%2.25%4.97%5.12%2.74%1.08%2.30%5.29%4.51%1.26%2.56%1.26%1.39%2.83%0.32%0.10%7.07%0.00%1.82%5.78%0.50%2.17%1.39%6.86%1.64%0.03%1.73%6.88%4.79%4.99%4.79%5.40%4.94%1.94%4.85%4.94%2.50%1.54%2.21%5.01%4.28%1.79%3.76%1.55%0.98%2.20%2.25%0.13%6.65%0.64%2.15%5.63%1.05%2.07%7.20%9.55%0.09%0.03%1.15%0.00%5.37%4.74%5.35%5.38%1.62%4.32%4.74%3.57%1.90%1.89%3.48%4.49%2.21%2.53%0.86%2.59%3.95%2.08%0.12%6.44%0.56%2.44%7.19%1.75%1.89%9.75%0.22%0.03%0.85%0.00%7.17% 21.32%华源证券综合其他
