> 数据图表你知道红利逻辑下，3.5%~4%股息率或为险资合意底线区间2026-3-3红利逻辑下，3.5%~4%股息率或为险资合意底线区间表10：PB若较当前提升10%，则四大行A股股息率仍在3%上方◼ 若10年期国债收益率保持平稳，测算银行板块估值提升30%后股息率仍具优势。当前银行股息率与PB呈现反向变动，即股息率的下降和PB估值的提升，均源于股价的推升。由于股息率= ROE*分红比例/PB，假设各银行分红比例保持不变，ROE维持2025Q3水平，则当银行PB较当期整体提升10%时，银行股息率降幅整体小于1pct；当银行PB较当期整体提升30%时，上市银行股息率仍高于3%，四大行股息率仍高于2.5%，虽较无风险利率仍具配置价值，但已接近保险协议存款利率，考虑到资本及股价波动因素，此时配置大行性价比偏弱，因此我们认为1xPB以下的国有行尚仍有长期配置价值。资料来源：Wind，华源证券研究所（注：分红比例以2025年为基础，ROE为2025Q3数据。PB股价数据截至2026年3月16日）39银行现股息分红比率例ROE工商银行 4.28% 30.00% 8.84%建设银行 4.40% 30.02% 9.87%农业银行 3.65% 30.01% 9.41%中国银行 4.50% 30.00% 8.02%邮储银行 5.15% 30.00% 9.31%交通银行 5.53% 30.07% 7.70%招商银行 5.03% 33.99% 12.17%浦发银行 4.00% 27.42% 6.60%兴业银行 5.63% 29.06% 9.49%中信银行 4.72% 28.37% 8.83%民生银行 4.85% 26.03% 5.72%光大银行 5.68% 26.78% 8.30%平安银行 5.56% 26.51% 10.09%华夏银行 5.66% 23.29% 6.56%浙商银行 5.03% 28.21% 7.75%假设PB较当前分别提升10%、20%、30%10%20%30%PB0.740.770.930.710.660.591.010.500.540.640.340.440.520.410.53股息率 变化3.59%3.86%3.03%3.37%4.22%3.95%4.09%3.59%5.10%3.91%4.39%5.11%5.14%3.76%4.14%-0.68%-0.54%-0.62%-1.13%-0.93%-1.58%-0.94%-0.40%-0.53%-0.81%-0.46%-0.57%-0.42%-1.89%-0.89%PB0.810.841.020.780.720.641.100.550.590.700.370.470.570.440.58股息率 变化3.30%3.54%2.78%3.09%3.87%3.62%3.75%3.29%4.67%3.59%4.02%4.68%4.71%3.45%3.80%-0.98%-0.86%-0.87%-1.41%-1.28%-1.91%-1.28%-0.70%-0.95%-1.13%-0.82%-1.00%-0.85%-2.21%-1.23%PB0.870.911.100.840.780.691.200.600.640.760.400.510.620.480.62股息率 变化3.04%3.27%2.57%2.85%3.57%3.34%3.46%3.04%4.32%3.31%3.71%4.32%4.35%3.18%3.51%-1.24%-1.14%-1.09%-1.65%-1.58%-2.19%-1.57%-0.96%-1.31%-1.41%-1.13%-1.36%-1.22%-2.47%-1.53%银行现股息分红比率例ROE北京银行 5.83% 26.19% 7.56%上海银行 5.07% 30.15% 9.37%江苏银行 4.84% 30.00% 12.77%南京银行 4.88% 30.01% 11.99%宁波银行 2.89% 21.91% 12.32%杭州银行 3.79% 25.02% 14.17%长沙银行 4.29% 21.58% 11.01%成都银行 5.20% 29.37% 13.49%重庆银行 3.67% 28.11% 10.48%贵阳银行 4.92% 20.53% 7.73%青岛银行 2.99% 21.84% 11.82%齐鲁银行 4.59% 25.85% 10.49%郑州银行 1.04% 9.69% 5.52%苏州银行 4.82% 32.50% 10.65%西安银行 2.67% 17.37% 7.44%厦门银行 4.19% 31.53% 8.09%沪农商行 4.90% 33.91% 11.28%渝农商行 4.37% 30.05% 10.59%青农商行 3.79% 23.34% 10.06%紫金银行 3.51% 22.55% 7.95%无锡银行 3.70% 21.44% 10.27%苏农银行 3.55% 16.98% 12.40%江阴银行 4.28% 24.17% 9.03%瑞丰银行 3.57% 20.42% 10.63%常熟银行 3.47% 19.77% 15.15%张家港行 4.34% 26.02% 10.46%假设PB较当前分别提升10%、20%、30%10%20%30%PB0.460.640.850.841.041.030.620.940.780.380.860.810.420.810.530.820.740.660.520.570.640.600.660.630.880.68股息率 变化4.31%4.40%4.50%4.31%2.60%3.44%3.83%4.20%3.76%4.23%2.99%3.33%1.27%4.25%2.43%3.12%5.15%4.81%4.51%3.14%3.43%3.50%3.31%3.47%3.39%4.03%-1.52%-0.67%-0.34%-0.57%-0.29%-0.34%-0.46%-0.99%0.09%-0.69%0.00%-1.26%0.23%-0.57%-0.24%-1.07%0.25%0.44%0.72%-0.37%-0.27%-0.05%-0.98%-0.10%-0.08%-0.31%PB0.500.700.930.911.131.120.681.030.850.410.940.890.460.890.580.890.810.720.570.620.700.660.720.680.960.74股息率 变化3.95%4.03%4.13%3.95%2.38%3.16%3.51%3.85%3.45%3.87%2.74%3.05%1.16%3.90%2.23%2.86%4.72%4.41%4.13%2.88%3.14%3.21%3.03%3.18%3.11%3.69%-1.88%-1.03%-0.71%-0.93%-0.51%-0.63%-0.78%-1.34%-0.22%-1.04%-0.25%-1.54%0.13%-0.92%-0.44%-1.33%-0.18%0.04%0.35%-0.63%-0.56%-0.34%-1.25%-0.39%-0.36%-0.64%PB0.540.761.010.991.231.220.731.110.930.441.020.960.500.960.630.970.880.780.620.670.760.710.780.741.040.80股息率 变化3.65%3.72%3.81%3.65%2.20%2.91%3.24%3.56%3.18%3.58%2.53%2.82%1.07%3.60%2.06%2.64%4.36%4.07%3.81%2.66%2.90%2.96%2.80%2.93%2.87%3.41%-2.18%-1.34%-1.03%-1.23%-0.69%-0.87%-1.05%-1.64%-0.49%-1.34%-0.46%-1.78%0.04%-1.22%-0.61%-1.55%-0.54%-0.30%0.03%-0.85%-0.80%-0.59%-1.48%-0.64%-0.60%-0.93%华源证券综合其他
