> 数据图表各位网友请教一下资金因素驱动银行板块行情轮转2026-3-3资金因素驱动银行板块行情轮转表12：2025年银行各板块之间轮动效应明显银行1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月 10月 11月 12月银行1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月工商银行 0.64% 0.73% 0.29% 1.74% 0.86% 7.36% 1.63% -1.72% -1.75% 6.58% 4.24% -0.47%建设银行 -0.57% -0.35% 3.76% 2.60% 1.97% 4.54% -0.32% -4.36% -4.33% 6.04% 5.81% -1.91%农业银行 -1.11% -0.58% 0.97% 4.63% 2.03% 6.33% 9.40% 11.43% -4.99% 19.34% 1.01% -2.97%中国银行 1.20% -0.92% 3.70% 0.83% -0.18% 1.81% -1.25% -0.54% -6.16% 8.30% 8.20% -3.76%邮储银行 -2.13% -1.66% -2.07% 0.34% 4.10% 2.63% 4.94% 5.23% -4.80% 0.00% -1.22% -4.05%交通银行 -4.37% -0.55% 3.33% 2.94% 1.74% 5.26% -4.38% -4.97% -7.57% 6.85% 5.71% -2.36%招商银行 3.44% 3.44% 2.95% -5.89% 6.60% 5.80% 0.99% -3.57% -5.78% 1.19% 5.04% -1.98%浦发银行 3.50% -4.51% 2.56% 5.08% 12.50% 12.57% -4.91% 6.40% -12.69% -3.45% -0.09% 8.36%兴业银行 6.00% 2.17% 4.10% -3.38% 8.48% 7.90% -3.00% -1.02% -11.42% 1.91% 4.35% -0.24%中信银行 -4.87% 3.92% 3.04% 1.41% 10.40% 6.78% -1.78% -3.54% -8.86% 7.50% 2.65% -0.77%民生银行 0.48% -0.72% -5.34% 2.05% 9.30% 9.20% 4.10% -5.93% -10.59% -1.76% 4.60% -6.36%光大银行 2.72% -2.84% 0.53% 0.00% 5.03% 4.53% -0.53% -6.67% -11.11% -0.60% 8.08% -3.32%平安银行 -1.97% 0.52% -2.34% -3.11% 5.96% 7.68% 1.33% -1.47% -5.89% 1.94% 2.56% -1.72%华夏银行 -3.84% -5.00% 8.45% -7.15% 3.58% 8.99% 0.51% -4.78% -13.08% 3.50% 1.76% -0.87%浙商银行 -0.34% -1.38% 2.80% 1.70% 7.69% 10.06% 0.00% -4.42% -8.02% 0.34% 2.68% -0.98%◼ 红利主逻辑下伴随板块轮动效应。2025年各机构对银行板块配置意愿边际均有提升，但不同机构的资金属性各具特征，资金差异性驱动了板块轮动效应。自2023年行情以来，国有大行率先经历了两年的普涨，相对涨幅高于其他类型银行；但在2025年4月份各行业绩发布后，业绩高增的城、农商行在5月迎来了阶段性上涨；此后进入6月城、农商行整体涨幅趋弱，股份行和部分国有行（工行、农行）涨幅更加显著；7月后部分低估值股份银行（民生、贵阳、郑州、厦门）均相对板块录得较大涨幅。10~11月银行板块普涨，12月再次阶段性回调。结合2025年板块轮动规律，我们认为当前银行股估值仍延续红利逻辑，同时机构间资金偏好及配置时点的差异性推动了行情在不同银行板块间轮转。若后续板块轮动加速，则均衡配置各类型银行的方式更能把握住市场机会。北京银行 -0.61%上海银行 1.64%江苏银行 4.40%南京银行 0.38%宁波银行 8.52%杭州银行 1.03%长沙银行 3.71%成都银行 0.47%重庆银行 -0.81%贵阳银行 -1.67%青岛银行 3.61%齐鲁银行 5.94%郑州银行 -4.76%苏州银行 -2.22%西安银行 -2.77%厦门银行 -1.60%沪农商行 -1.88%渝农商行 3.12%青农商行 -1.64%紫金银行 -0.65%无锡银行 -1.35%苏农银行 1.13%江阴银行 0.00%瑞丰银行 -1.07%常熟银行 -2.11%张家港行 -2.29%-2.50%3.42%-0.66%5.00%8.41%-2.88%-6.98%-8.17%1.45%1.61%-3.52%0.65%5.24%5.38%1.93%2.39%-3.58%-6.74%-6.08%9.30%4.11%2.23%-8.06%4.05%6.95%8.07%8.74%-3.72%-4.16%-7.39%7.48%-0.56%-2.99%-5.52%2.28%0.87%9.98%3.11%-1.20%-3.14%-1.71%3.48%5.13%-1.21%-7.96%6.34%-7.44%11.76%2.43%5.26%1.26%-6.34%7.23%0.11%0.08%-2.37%0.21%1.80%13.33%0.96%-3.00%-1.12%-3.78%2.82%1.76%-1.99%-7.05%7.12%-1.42%8.40%5.61%-0.60%-2.73%-6.03%8.38%0.73%0.62%-6.63%7.10%-1.22%14.19%3.66%-3.71%0.00%-6.61%-2.55%0.36%-4.45%-3.88%11.87%10.20%4.58%-0.77%-6.91%-2.67%-9.25%19.48%4.97%-3.30%-2.71%2.61%-2.04%5.72%7.37%2.40%-3.13%-6.95%5.56%-1.32%-2.17%1.49%3.43%7.58%9.91%2.97%-4.62%3.37%-3.05%8.82%-6.56%-7.44%4.15%0.66%0.99%8.50%-2.77%-4.59%-7.63%3.05%5.40%-2.15%-3.04%-2.00%-1.53%-4.15%7.03%4.04%2.38%-0.48%-4.81%1.52%-0.50%-3.50%-5.80%5.49%2.03%8.46%3.02%-2.73%-4.92%0.49%1.35%1.68%1.10%-1.71%1.74%-1.42%9.25%3.70%0.33%8.85%-6.94%0.00%-1.54%-3.39%-1.26%7.48%-2.21%12.50%7.26%0.88%-2.19%-6.27%12.26%1.42%4.63%-4.43%4.51%0.72%6.67%10.32%-6.29%-4.29%-3.28%4.28%10.43%-1.38%-6.29%7.42%12.66%5.84%-0.06%-5.04%-7.23%4.77%5.01%-6.07%-0.62%-0.33%3.69%1.29%10.54%4.34%0.05%-2.29%-9.06%3.54%-2.48%-1.27%-2.16%1.84%-2.53%7.41%5.23%0.00%-0.67%-6.04%1.07%-2.12%-0.36%-3.26%1.42%-3.32%10.31%3.44%-1.26%1.33%-3.61%3.23%1.51%-1.98%-4.67%3.14%-0.38%15.08%5.38%-4.81%-0.94%-4.36%4.23%0.39%-2.88%-4.60%7.23%-2.32%10.12%3.94%-1.89%3.00%-7.29%6.74%1.47%-3.22%-5.92%1.34%-2.45%12.98%2.84%-2.42%-0.71%-5.35%3.20%0.73%3.26%-7.69%1.90%4.16%9.09%5.59%0.27%1.76%-7.20%3.07%1.13%-1.26%-3.04%2.66%-1.18%9.95%2.04%-0.44%0.89%-4.87%5.65%2.25%0.66%资料来源：Wind，华源证券研究所（注：数据为各月银行A股涨幅）41华源证券综合其他
