> 数据图表想关注一下阿里巴巴：业务全面AI化，零售份额有望企稳回升2025-12-4阿里巴巴：业务全面AI化，零售份额有望企稳回升➢ 核心逻辑：• 业务全面AI化，在电商场景已落地各类商户经营工具、用户购买决策全链路工具，在交易转化效率、商户投放效率等有较大提升空间。• 电商主站与即时零售的协同已有初步验证，我们预计协同效应将持续强大。阿里在线零售（含闪购）的份额有望企稳回升。➢ 估值：现价对应26.0x/16.8x FY2026E/FY2027E市盈率，估值吸引。➢ 风险：宏观消费预期疲弱；闪购与电商主站的协同不及预期；闪购投入力度大于预期。资料来源：公司财报，国投证券国际预测（注：FY2025 中国电商集团、所有其他分部数据为我们按照2025年6月季度分部调整的回溯估算，非披露数据）2025/12/10请参阅本报告尾部免责声明1414百万元财年截至3/31收入同比营业成本毛利毛利率研发费用同比营销费用同比行政费用同比经营利润经营利润率归母净利润净利润率经调整 EBITA经调整EBITA利润率经调整净利润经调整净利润率分部业绩：1 中国电商集团同比1.1 中国零售商业同比1.1.1 客户管理同比1.1.2 直营、物流及其他同比1.2 中国批发零售同比1.3 即时零售*同比Adj. EBITAAdj. EBITA利润率2 云智能同比Adj. EBITAAdj. EBITA利润率3 国际数字商业集团同比Adj. EBITAAdj. EBITA利润率FY2025*FY2026EFY2027EFY2028E996,3475.9%-598,285398,06240.0%-57,1519%-144,02125%-44,2395%140,90514.1%129,47013.0%173,06517.4%158,12215.9%506,6644.8%425,5262.7%322,3466.0%103,180-6.5%24,30118.7%54,27811.6%195,68743.5%118,02811%10,5568.9%132,30029%-15,137-11.4%1,041,3434.5%-603,383437,96042.1%-65,69315%-242,08068%-37,135-16%90,2708.7%123,90011.9%102,5019.8%104,18510.0%565,67311.6%464,6769.2%352,9009.5%111,7768.3%27,31612.4%73,68135.7%122,56321.7%157,97134%14,3329.1%148,64112%8560.6%1,150,62110.5%-655,201495,42043.1%-74,66214%-276,53314%-35,702-4%105,5349.2%131,87511.5%161,25514.0%154,58413.4%612,3188.2%495,0536.5%374,7106.2%120,3437.7%30,96313.3%86,30217.1%178,27529.1%211,61034%19,9399.4%167,52313%2,6341.6%1,275,48110.9%-693,131582,35045.7%-79,9747%-306,65611%-38,3337%153,69712.1%169,99613.3%227,57914.3%183,76214.4%657,4967.4%525,7836.2%398,0716.2%127,7126.1%33,1307.0%98,58314.2%199,66830.4%274,16230%26,7939.8%190,66614%3,9522.1%国证国际综合其他
