> 数据图表咨询下各位5Y2025-12-35Y012025 阶段三：7月至9月底，反内卷政策+中美关税延期，市场风险偏好回升，股市走强，叠加公募债基赎回新规扰动，债市持续调整，长端信用债跌幅明显。 阶段四：10月至今，隔壁权益市场震荡，股债跷跷板效应减弱，市场对公募债基赎回新规预期边际转暖，央行重启买卖国债，摊余定开债基迎来集中开放期，信用债震荡修复。11月下旬地产政策预期再起，月末万科债券展期事件扰动市场。数据来源：WIND，国泰海通证券研究整理，数据截至2025年11月14日。411月7日当前利率水平（%）较前一周变动(BP)与国开债利差的3年内历史分位数（%）与国开债利差的1年内历史分位数（%）当前利率水平（%）较前一周变动(BP)与国开债利差的3年内历史分位数（%）与国开债利差的1年内历史分位数（%）1年期2年期3年期4年期5年期1年期2年期3年期4年期5年期1年期2年期3年期4年期5年期1年期2年期3年期4年期5年期1年期2年期3年期4年期5年期1年期2年期3年期4年期5年期1年期2年期3年期4年期5年期1年期2年期3年期4年期5年期中票AA+1.751.841.952.032.071.210.27-0.53-2.4-2.760.900.100.001.401.402.800.400.000.000.00地产债AA+1.811.922.052.132.180.66-0.27-1.05-3.03-3.410.302.605.108.106.2018.0011.6012.506.80AA1.771.902.062.152.260.21-0.73-2.53-5.4-6.760.100.103.708.108.700.400.400.000.000.00AA2.182.312.482.592.73-2.02-2.69-4.3-7.83-9.543.507.806.907.908.5022.000.000.000.00AAA1.701.791.871.951.981.212.27-0.531.60.241.301.300.003.501.104.004.000.000.000.80AAA1.751.841.932.002.041.22.28-0.611.580.181.503.100.900.900.3059.202.402.801.20城投债产业债（中证）普通商金债二级资本债永续债AA1.781.892.022.072.111.210.730.930.42-1.320.500.708.2010.708.901.602.406.4010.404.80AAA1.701.801.911.951.982.310.481.860-3.851.300.600.602.300.304.002.000.400.000.00AAA-1.751.811.871.941.981.231.26-0.510.59-0.741.300.200.000.000.1040.800.000.000.40AA+1.741.841.941.992.071.310.490.87-4-4.910.500.100.101.503.001.600.400.400.000.40钢铁债AA+1.801.871.952.032.071.280.29-0.53-2.4-2.761.100.301.101.300.1041.203.604.000.40AA1.761.892.012.122.200.31-0.52-1.13-2.5-5.910.300.000.208.608.101.200.000.000.000.00AA1.872.052.282.382.510.25-0.8-2.85-6.04-7.540.001.9010.9013.9015.9000.800.000.000.00AAA1.711.791.881.941.971.222.31.11.060.41.001.200.906.400.003.203.202.002.000.00AAA1.651.741.821.891.931.232.26-0.451.620.31.101.300.000.000.203.604.000.000.000.80AA+1.741.831.922.002.050.061.11-0.31-2.48-3.810.200.200.205.600.500.800.800.400.800.00煤炭债AA+1.751.841.952.032.071.210.27-0.53-2.4-2.760.900.100.001.401.402.800.400.000.000.00AA1.771.902.042.192.26-1.67-2.27-0.52-3.08-0.940.000.002.0010.008.600.000.000.400.400.00AA1.841.942.062.152.260.16-0.78-2.53-5.4-6.760.200.100.000.005.300.800.400.000.000.00AAA1.661.761.831.851.882.213.731.930.42-1.321.503.302.302.200.204.809.207.202.000.40AAA1.701.791.871.951.981.292.31-0.531.60.240.901.000.003.501.102.803.200.000.000.80AA+1.711.821.891.921.952.212.730.930.42-1.321.505.002.103.801.004.8015.306.407.201.20公路债AA+1.751.841.952.032.071.210.27-0.53-2.4-2.760.900.100.001.701.402.800.400.000.000.00AAA-1.701.831.942.062.182.945.394.354.234.161.004.705.3017.3043.203.2012.903.6016.5062.90AAA1.701.791.871.951.981.212.27-0.531.60.241.301.300.003.501.104.004.000.000.000.80AA+1.731.851.982.112.25-0.774.013.822.793.240.504.5010.2021.4043.201.6012.507.6023.3060.00电力债AA+1.751.841.952.032.071.210.27-0.53-2.4-2.760.900.100.001.401.402.800.400.000.000.00AA1.781.902.032.192.340.233.012.821.793.240.505.906.6016.1025.001.6016.901.6013.3018.50AA1.791.942.112.202.320.26-0.67-2.48-5.42-6.790.200.200.602.707.800.800.802.000.000.80AAA-1.701.862.012.142.251.455.375.435.766.830.604.9010.6023.9036.602.4017.3011.6036.6066.10AAA1.701.791.871.951.981.212.27-0.531.60.241.803.800.103.801.105.6011.600.400.800.80AA+1.731.902.062.192.301.465.375.435.765.830.609.8018.5028.9036.002.4027.4035.8043.5060.80建筑债AA+1.771.871.982.062.111.871.120.55-1.3-1.630.700.700.500.601.302.402.401.600.000.00AA1.781.952.112.272.411.465.373.433.761.830.706.309.2015.8017.002.8018.906.4027.4023.30AA1.872.052.262.352.480.22-0.93-3.07-6.23-7.730.105.3011.5013.0014.700.400.400.000.000.00国泰海通金融地产
