> 数据图表咨询下各位2.8 轻量化趋势以及新能源汽车渗透率的提高促进交运用铝
2025-12-62.8 轻量化趋势以及新能源汽车渗透率的提高促进交运用铝➢ 展望2026年，我们认为轻量化的趋势会使得汽车用铝的渗透率持续提升，预测2026年新能源车用铝需求达437.3万吨。➢ 从汽车产量增长角度，预计2025-2026年新能源车产量增速分别为 35%/10%；预计燃油车2025-2026年产量增速分别为-2%/0%。表：交运行业用铝测算燃油车产量（万辆）商用车ICE产量（万辆）商用车ICE单车用铝量（公斤/辆）乘用车ICE产量（万辆）乘用车ICE单车用铝量（公斤/辆）燃油车用铝（万吨）新能源车产量（万辆）商用车BEV产量（万辆）商用车BEV单车用铝量（公斤/辆）乘用车BEV产量（万辆）乘用车BEV单车用铝量（公斤/辆）新能源车用铝（万吨）汽车用铝总量（万吨）非汽车用铝（万吨）交运行业用铝（万吨）YOY2020A2021A2022A231747070.31847136,424.914730232.2117157.925.4310.4480790.413%2285416731869145.2301.836867244.5301173.168.5370.2518888.2194023975.71701153.9279.972289257.7633188.2142.142252995112.4%7.1%2023A2057.427678.61782162.5311.2959128271.8830201.9202.5513.75081021.77.4%数据来源：IAI，mymetal，东吴证券研究所2024A1839.42025E1802.62026E1802.620681.51633171.2296.4128929287.11260215.5279.8576.248823484.61513179.8301.1174039303.61507226.8397.6704.44681063.94.1%1172.610.2%22284.61,438179.8301.11,91443303.61,871226.8437.3738.54681216.43.4%16 
