如何了解国庆前后日历效应几何？持股过节或更合算

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如何了解国庆前后日历效应几何？持股过节或更合算

2026-9-6

国庆前后日历效应几何？持股过节或更合算3）国庆前后风格怎么看：国庆前基金持仓占优，国庆后小盘再启动。背后或为基金季末调仓，同时个人投资者减仓过节、小盘相对更承压。图表：国庆前后风格怎么看？国庆前基金持仓占优，国庆后小盘再启动股票基金超额 2010Y2011Y2012Y2013Y2014Y2015Y2016Y2017Y2018Y2019Y2020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y胜率赔率9月之前表现1.4%-1.1%0.4%-2.3%-1.5%4.2%0.7%0.5%-1.2%-0.2%0.5%-1.9%-0.2%-1.1%-0.5%2.2%国庆之前5天0.0%-0.1%-0.2%1.8%-0.8%1.5%0.3%0.8%0.2%0.8%1.4%1.3%1.6%0.3%-3.5%0.4%75%0.5%国庆之前2天 -0.7%0.2%-0.6%0.4%-0.2%0.6%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.3%0.7%0.6%0.0%0.0%-1.2%0.5%56%0.1%国庆之后5天 -4.9%-1.3%-0.4%-1.2%-0.7%-1.5%-0.5%0.0%0.8%-0.5%0.4%-0.6%-0.6%-0.3%0.4%-2.0%25%-0.6%国庆之后10天 -6.1%-1.0%0.0%-1.1%-0.4%-2.5%-1.0%1.1%1.3%0.2%-0.4%-0.1%-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%-1.9%19%-0.6%小盘超额2010Y2011Y2012Y2013Y2014Y2015Y2016Y2017Y2018Y2019Y2020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y胜率赔率9月之前表现0.9%-1.2%0.2%-1.0%4.5%1.3%1.1%0.5%-0.3%2.4%-0.6%1.8%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%-1.2%国庆之前5天 -0.9%-3.0%-2.0%1.4%0.9%0.7%0.1%-0.2%-2.2%-1.8%-1.7%-4.3%-1.5%1.5%1.0%-1.1%38%-0.7%国庆之前2天 -1.3%-2.1%-0.4%0.3%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.1%-0.9%0.4%0.4%-0.5%-0.6%0.9%2.1%-0.1%56%0.0%国庆之后5天 -6.3%1.0%1.2%1.2%0.7%0.2%0.8%-0.1%-1.7%0.6%0.4%-0.8%2.7%0.7%-0.1%-0.1%63%0.3%国庆之后10天 -8.9%-1.2%1.4%1.6%0.0%-0.8%0.7%-1.6%-2.9%-0.3%-0.2%0.2%4.4%-0.3%2.9%-0.9%44%-0.1%数据来源：Wind，财通证券研究所；9月之前表现的时间范围为9月1日到国庆前5天；赔率剔除极值计算7

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