> 数据图表一起讨论下国庆前后日历效应几何？持股过节或更合算2026-9-6国庆前后日历效应几何？持股过节或更合算4）国庆前后板块怎么看？国庆前消费占优，国庆后先成长再金融。其中消费更对应基金持仓，成长更对应小盘/个人投资者持仓。图表：国庆前后板块怎么看？国庆前消费占优，国庆后先成长再金融成长超额2010Y2011Y2012Y2013Y2014Y2015Y2016Y2017Y2018Y2019Y2020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y胜率赔率9月之前表现2.5%-0.7%0.3%0.9%1.7%1.1%-0.7%0.9%-1.6%4.3%-0.2%-2.9%-1.3%-3.4%-0.8%2.9%国庆之前5天0.3%-2.3%-1.5%2.3%1.0%0.5%-0.5%0.6%-1.6%-2.3%0.0%-0.3%-1.2%1.5%3.7%0.9%56%0.0%国庆之前2天 -1.0%-1.6%-0.1%1.1%0.7%-0.1%-0.1%0.3%-1.0%0.2%0.8%0.3%-0.7%0.7%4.5%0.6%56%0.1%国庆之后5天 -4.9%0.4%0.0%0.2%-0.3%3.7%0.6%0.2%-3.2%-0.4%0.6%-0.4%1.8%0.9%1.8%-2.5%63%0.0%国庆之后10天 -5.3%-2.3%-0.1%0.9%-1.0%3.1%0.2%-0.8%-3.0%-1.7%-1.1%0.6%2.8%-0.2%5.6%-2.8%38%-0.4%周期超额2010Y2011Y2012Y2013Y2014Y2015Y2016Y2017Y2018Y2019Y2020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y胜率赔率9月之前表现0.8%-1.0%1.4%-1.7%1.1%-1.4%0.6%0.4%0.0%0.7%1.5%1.1%1.4%2.7%0.9%1.2%国庆之前5天1.0%-1.2%-0.4%-0.4%0.6%-0.5%0.1%0.5%-0.2%-0.7%-1.0%-5.3%-1.5%-0.9%-4.2%1.0%31%-0.6%国庆之前2天0.2%-1.1%0.7%-0.3%0.3%-0.2%0.2%-0.2%0.0%0.1%-0.3%-0.9%0.4%-0.1%-2.5%0.8%50%-0.1%国庆之后5天2.7%-0.4%0.5%0.7%0.7%1.5%0.5%-1.2%0.5%-0.5%0.7%-0.9%0.2%-0.2%-1.9%2.0%63%0.3%国庆之后10天 3.1%-3.5%0.1%0.5%-0.1%-0.6%0.8%-1.9%-1.4%-1.6%0.5%0.5%0.0%0.7%-3.7%1.0%50%-0.4%数据来源：Wind，财通证券研究所；9月之前表现的时间范围为9月1日到国庆前5天；赔率剔除极值计算8财通证券综合其他
