> 数据图表咨询下各位国庆前后日历效应几何？持股过节或更合算2026-9-6国庆前后日历效应几何？持股过节或更合算4）国庆前后板块怎么看？国庆前消费占优，国庆后先成长再金融。其中消费更对应基金持仓，成长更对应小盘/个人投资者持仓。图表：国庆前后板块怎么看？国庆前消费占优，国庆后先成长再金融消费超额2010Y2011Y2012Y2013Y2014Y2015Y2016Y2017Y2018Y2019Y2020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y胜率赔率9月之前表现2.4%-2.4%0.4%0.1%-0.5%-1.4%0.1%0.7%-0.6%-3.8%-3.4%2.0%-2.3%1.3%-1.7%-2.7%国庆之前5天0.3%-1.3%-0.1%3.2%-0.8%0.2%0.4%0.7%1.3%1.0%1.1%6.0%4.5%-0.3%2.7%-1.8%69%0.9%国庆之前2天 -1.3%-0.6%-0.1%0.4%-0.4%0.2%0.3%0.6%0.3%0.4%0.7%0.7%0.7%-0.4%0.1%-1.1%63%0.1%国庆之后5天 -9.1%-0.5%0.1%0.8%-0.1%-0.7%-0.1%2.1%0.7%-0.7%0.4%2.1%-1.5%-0.9%-3.4%0.4%44%-0.2%国庆之后10天 -10.1% -0.8%0.7%1.8%0.1%-1.0%-0.5%3.4%-0.2%0.8%0.8%-1.4%-2.9%-1.9%-6.4%0.8%44%-0.7%稳定超额2010Y2011Y2012Y2013Y2014Y2015Y2016Y2017Y2018Y2019Y2020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y胜率赔率9月之前表现 -1.3%1.2%-1.4%-2.7%2.9%-2.0%0.5%-3.1%1.2%-2.1%1.0%10.8%3.0%2.0%-1.0%-1.9%国庆之前5天 -1.4%-0.6%-0.3%-2.3%0.6%-1.4%-1.2%-0.9%-0.9%0.8%-0.7%-1.0%-0.9%-1.4% -10.3% -2.3%13%-1.1%国庆之前2天 -0.4%-0.3%-0.3%-0.9%0.1%-0.8%-0.4%-0.7%0.6%-0.1%-0.7%-0.6%0.3%-0.2%-6.5%-1.7%19%-0.5%国庆之后5天 -1.2%0.4%-0.4%0.9%-0.4%-1.5%1.8%-0.4%1.9%-1.6%-2.8%-6.2%0.3%-1.2%-0.6%3.8%38%-0.3%国庆之后10天 -3.2%0.3%-0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%4.5%0.1%1.6%-1.3%-2.4%-5.4%0.8%0.4%-3.7%5.0%50%-0.3%数据来源：Wind，财通证券研究所；9月之前表现的时间范围为9月1日到国庆前5天；赔率剔除极值计算9财通证券综合其他
