> 数据图表如何了解国庆前后日历效应几何？持股过节或更合算2026-9-6国庆前后日历效应几何？持股过节或更合算6）离场踏空风险>在场利空风险：①风险可能小于利好可能，过节9次港股/A50波动超2%仅1次下跌；②大涨年份，第1周上涨过半在第1天，即离场少获利一半。图表：国庆有利好会怎么涨？风险可能小于利好可能，先离场或将少兑现一半盈利2010Y 2011Y 2012Y 2013Y 2014Y 2015Y 2016Y 2017Y 2018Y 2019Y 2020Y 2021Y 2022Y 2023Y 2024Y2025Y港股-国庆表现2.4%0.7%0.8%0.5%2.1%8.0%2.4%3.3%-4.4% -1.0%3.1%0.5%3.0%0.7%9.3%0.4%A50期货-国庆表现-0.5%0.0%-0.4%0.2%0.0%1.3%2.9%-4.1% -0.9%2.2%-1.3%2.2%-0.5% 14.3%0.2%全A-国庆后第一天2.9%-0.6% -0.6%1.5%1.4%4.1%1.8%1.2%-3.8%0.3%2.5%0.7%-2.1% -0.3%7.1%0.0%全A-后2-5天3.4%3.6%1.6%2.1%-0.8%5.6%0.6%0.8%-5.5%3.5%2.2%-0.7%4.9%-0.1% -8.1%-0.8%全A-后6-10天4.2%-5.3%1.2%0.0%-1.1%1.1%0.6%-1.3% -2.3% -2.7% -1.1%1.0%-1.0% -4.3%1.7%-1.0%第1天涨幅/5日总涨幅46%227% 43%75%59%53%-76%-437%数据来源：Wind，财通证券研究所；9月之前表现的时间范围为9月1日到国庆前5天；赔率剔除极值计算11财通证券综合其他
