> 数据图表咨询下各位国庆前后日历效应几何？持股过节或更合算2026-10-2国庆前后日历效应几何？持股过节或更合算2）国庆后行情偏弱的可能条件：或者行情趋势偏弱，或者类似2024年国庆前极致上涨、阶段回调动力较强。本轮短期行情偏强震荡，但涨幅、拥挤度均未达到极端值。图表11：国庆前后行情如何走？国庆前2日开始持有胜率较高，承压往往源于持续下行行情全A2010Y2011Y2012Y2013Y2014Y2015Y2016Y2017Y2018Y2019Y2020Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2024Y2025Y胜率赔率9月之前表现 -1.4%-5.5%-0.5%7.0%6.3%-4.1%-1.0%1.2%-1.1%4.1%-3.7%1.4%-5.2%-2.5%-3.0%0.4%国庆之前5天2.5%-3.5%2.9%-1.5%3.2%-1.9%-0.7%0.0%2.5%-3.2%-2.4%-2.4%-2.5%1.4%26.0%2.4%50%0.0%国庆之前2天1.3%-1.7%4.3%1.4%1.3%-1.6%0.8%0.4%0.1%-0.5%0.5%-0.5%-1.1%0.7%15.0%2.3%69%0.7%国庆之后5天6.5%3.0%1.0%3.7%0.6%9.9%2.4%2.0%-9.1%3.9%4.7%0.0%2.8%-0.4%-1.6%0.4%81%2.1%国庆之后10天 11.0%-2.5%2.2%3.7%-0.5%11.1%3.0%0.7%-11.2%1.1%3.6%1.0%1.7%-4.7%0.1%1.3%75%1.5%数据来源：Wind，财通证券研究所；9月之前表现的时间范围为9月1日到国庆前5天；赔率剔除极值计算12财通证券农林牧渔
